01-03-2022, 05:25 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-03-2022, 05:38 PM by Eric the Green.)
(01-02-2022, 08:27 PM)galaxy Wrote:(01-02-2022, 02:22 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I can already predict what will be the real cause of the Crisis of 2100: global warming.
It's obvious to us now, but of course no one at the beginning of that turning will see it coming when it begins around 2090 or so.
A more interesting question for me is predicting the central features of the next Awakening (2T beginning between 2044 and 2052, ending between 2064 and 2072). My money is on automation, and a cultural tension between "human" and "automated." The new Prophets will revolt against the "soulless, unfeeling computerized world the Millennials have built" and try to "rediscover how to be 'truly human.'"
(01-02-2022, 01:01 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The 4th turning won't end until 2029.
How so confident? The best I can do is 2024 to 2032, based on rough estimates of when Homelanders will surpass Boomers in number.
We see global warming not only coming, but coming on; strong already. It's already our Crisis. If we don't deal with it now in this 4T, we will see nothing BUT global warming from then on. It will be "coming" perpetually from then on, and we will be powerless to stop it. Civilization will end. Maybe that will be what happens in the 2090s. But it won't be a 4T, because the cycle will be over.
I am confident that the cycle will correspond to the planetary cycle I already knew about before reading anything about Strauss and Howe. The date was already set. But Mr. Howe agrees with that date. Normally, turnings last 21 years. I see no basis, given how little has been done to deal with our Crisis so far, for saying it will end sooner. We still face everything we faced in 2008, and more. We still have not decided to vote fully for a government capable of dealing with it, and the tycoons that run things are still not changing what they do fast and fully enough. There is some progress happening, but way more is needed before we get out of any crisis. The national division in the USA is also the heart of this 4T.
If we do make it through this 4T, we could still have the next 2T. It will definitely start in the mid to late 2040s. The planetary cycles could not be more clear on that. I see it much the same way as you do Mr. Galaxy, regarding the revolt against alienating, virtual tech and recovery of our humanness, although the ecology issue will still be front and center too and motivate more drastic ideals and changes. I see much emphasis on restoring community and local coops. One question is whether libertarianism will revive, or whether early in the 2T the "great society" will revive and continue and be extended worldwide. The Earth will still have warmed, causing further catastrophes through the 2T and beyond, but a reversal of the tipping points may well be happening if we get started on fixing the climate now.