01-18-2022, 02:01 PM
(01-18-2022, 12:35 PM)David Horn Wrote:(01-17-2022, 02:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: How can there be a 1T or a 2T without a proper 4T preceding it? That's not how the cycle works. If nothing is done in this 4T, climate change and inequality with all the social and health problems that go along with these will be so engrained and democracy so destroyed that no-one in the 2040s and 50s will have any means or any hope of correcting these problems. 1Ts are stand pat eras; 2Ts are about cultural change; 4Ts are supposed to be the time when we fight it out on so-called "real issues" and make the institutional changes. This is the job of the prophet, nomad and civic generational combo. Others cannot do it. Two senators are blocking us right now. We have to find a way to break through this in this decade, or we die. We are toast and we are through.
Reality rarely matches expectations; this 4T certainly hasn't. The question you ask is, can a poor 4T generate a 1T? I think so. After all, the last 1T varied greatly from country to country, and all seem to have been real 1Ts -- even Japan and both Germanies. But you're right that the lack of progress will make things far worse than solving problems today. 2040 will be bad. That doesn't mean that it's an unredeemable scenario, just highly challenging.
Who will conquer and transform the USA, the way the USA and The West conquered and transformed Japan and Germany?
Remember, if we have a 2T it will only begin in the late 2040s. Something will happen, but without a progressive 4T victory, it will just be an acceleration of destruction. The year 2040 will be more like 1960 or 1880, just not as happy or prosperous.