04-07-2022, 02:14 PM
(04-05-2022, 05:51 PM)JasonBlack Wrote: "Ukraine is definitely in a 1T"
(puts on best Hannibal voice) not anymore....
Ukraine is certainly deep in crisis, but just because a crisis is happening does not indicate 4T.
For Russia, the Second World War (or Great Patriotic War, as it is called there) was a war of national survival - about as critical as a national crisis can get. But, it was a 1T war. The 1T began in the late 1920s or early 1930s and ended in the early 1950s, around the time of the death of Stalin.
I continue to point to the War of 1812 as the best historical analogy for this war. A war fought between two culturally similar and closely historically connected countries on very similar cycles, both 1T at the time. The war lacked a clear winner, yet both sides declared victory, and both countries had more national pride and unity after the war than before it, despite the end result of the war being nearly identical to the pre-war status quo, with a whole lot of pointless death and destruction having happened in the intervening time.
Non-4T wars, or non-4T crises more generally, all do the same thing: if they do not mark the start or end of a turning, then they intensify their turning. There are two really strong examples of this in the USA in the 20th century: a rather 2T-ish 3T turned into "hyper-3T" after the First World War, and the Vietnam War provided a catalyst to the intensity of the early part of the 1963-1984 2T.
If Ukraine enters "hyper-1T" after this (probably aided by a big involvement of the international community in the rebuilding), that should be taken as an indication of a 1T war.
2001, a very artistic hero and/or a very heroic artist