The Log Cabin Libertarians?

[David Horn]

(04-20-2022, 06:18 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I cannot remember whether I posted this here. I have written a book about our current crisis. It is the result of 25 years of inquiry. Although heavily influenced by S&H, I ultimately rejected their generational model as not fitting the data and went with Peter Turchin's secular cycle concept. I was already working on this when the old T4T site went down and there is a section here on this stuff. I have gone deep into this theory, employing new fields like cultural evolution as an adjunct to Turchin's cliodynamics, and incorporating Hyman Minsky's and Steve Keen's theories to form a comprehensive account of how these crises form and how one can resolve them successfully. 

I am not a good writer and the subject is complex so the book is a hard read. But I am trying to get some feedback about whether I should bother publishing.

America-in-crisis.pdf (neocities.org)

I started through your book in the past.  I'll try to finish it now.  You're right -- it's a tough read, but no moreso than Thomas Picketty's Capital in the 21st Century, which I tackled in the past.  In fact, some of your ideas and his overlap.  

You mentioned that you rejected S&H in favor of Turchin, but I don't think that any single model is likely to be right.  As Yogi Berra noted, predictions are hard, especially about the future.  I'll add that it's also true that the past is far from flat -- certainly since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.  But I think we're seeing an emerging pattern for today: the explosion of information sources has led the world to see information as inexact.  In fact, it's assumed that multiple versions of reality are equally true, with everyone choosing their preferred option. Only a societal reset will change that.  Frankly, I'm losing faith in our ability to reset our expectations short of a major war, and that's too scary to contemplate.  If you have other options, I'm all ears and eyes.