The Panic of 1857/The Panic of 2022

[David Horn]

(06-28-2022, 09:38 PM)nguyenivy Wrote:

(06-28-2022, 05:04 PM)David Horn Wrote: If this 4T dies on the vine, and that's looking more and more likely at this point, then the 2T will be the crisis response we're lacking now.  I fear it may be a kinda-war of autocrats and anarchists -- not quite real-world dungeons and dragons, but close.

Would that mean the 1T in between will be more like a 2nd 3T and not a real 1T? What if we're in another saeculum anomaly again, like S&H claimed about the 1800s missing a turning? I can't imagine yet another 20+ years of trickle-down economics (!) with no changes.

We haven't been in this position as a nation before -- not even as a cluster of colonies.  This 4T is both obvious and not compelling.  Why?  Because we're being lead by the geriatric remains of both parties -- especiall the Democrats.  It's nigh unto impossible to progress if the people making the decisions of how to go about it have little future themselves.  If that changes, my opinion may also.

For a quick overview of 1Ts and 2Ts following failed 4Ts, look to the nations that lost WW-II.  The Finns did very well, but they were mainly enemies of the USSR, not allies of the Nazis.  The Italians flailed around looking for the next thing to do, and are finally back on track.  Both the Germans and Japanese went hyper pacifist, and the Japanese are just now emerging from that.  Those are guideposts with little guidance.  How would we handle it?  Good question.