Ukraine is definitely in a 1T

[David Horn]

(07-12-2022, 10:37 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-12-2022, 09:14 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(04-22-2022, 12:50 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Millennials/Gen Z today are the most disapproving of President Biden, according to polls now. They are going in just the opposite direction from what is needed and what I expected. Whether they are dissatisfied with him on the left or from the right is not clear.

Dissatisfied from the left.

This can be seen in polls for the 2022 midterm elections. In every case, without exception, when a state is polled for a Senate or Governor election, the Democratic candidate far outperforms Biden's approval in the state.

This is distinctly different from 2018, where in most cases the Republican candidates polled very close to Trump's approval in any given state, and from 2010, where the Democratic candidates were consistently close to Obama's approval.

What has changed is polarization. Disapproving of a Democratic president no longer makes people vote Republican as it did in 2010. Now, it makes them vote Democratic but be unhappy about it. The Democrats, if they want to do well in this election, need to realize that their most important task is not convincing people to prefer them over Republicans - that part is already done. What isn't done is convincing them to actually vote. The midterms will be won or lost by turnout.

Yes indeed. Both appear to be needed though. The polls for the congressional midterms are still stuck at a slight Republican lead. A number of Senate races are too close to call. Democrats need to take PA and WI back, despite a WI supreme court determined to keep the state Republican through voting restrictions. Still, those look winnable. And they need to hold NV, GA, AZ and NH in which the Senate races are tied and may show a 1 or 2 point Republican lead. NC and FL are outside chances for a Democratic pick-up.

The real question: what happens on election day?  Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually geting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide.  Will that mean a Dem sweep?  TBD, but probably not.  We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other.  I do agree that turnout is key.  The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief.  Worse,they need to motivate one another.  They aren't listening to the rest of us.