07-14-2022, 11:41 PM
(07-14-2022, 10:05 AM)David Horn Wrote:(07-13-2022, 05:00 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(07-13-2022, 12:16 PM)David Horn Wrote:(07-12-2022, 03:55 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(07-12-2022, 01:45 PM)David Horn Wrote: The real question: what happens on election day? Apparently, the 1/6 commission is actually getting traction, and the tar is being spread far and wide. Will that mean a Dem sweep? TBD, but probably not. We're tribal now, and even a dispicable member of one's own party is better than a saint from the other. I do agree that turnout is key. The least likely to vote are the youngest, and most Blue in belief. Worse,they need to motivate one another. They aren't listening to the rest of us.
They listened to Obama in 2018.
Will they listen to voices like his now, including Biden's voice, at a time when Democrats supposedly are "in power" (which they are not, and that needs to be made clear)?
With Obama, they went big and got nothing. They stayed with the Dems and got Trump and now Biden. He looks almost dead to them. I doubt they'll get engaged for him; someone a lot younger, maybe.
Let's admit it, they need to see real effort; progress would be better, but that's not possible is it? Abject fear may move them to act, but otherwise they'll sit this out. They're the Screwed Generation. The Zoomers are the Screwed Generation On Steroids. Other than fear, where is the motivation?
I would say, they got Obama, who got as much as could reasonably have been gotten in 7 months of power, but they wanted perfection and got angry with him and stayed home. And the Tea Party folks could not tolerate anyone else but themselves in power. That resulted in the right-wing taking over congress and gerrymandering the country ever since. They stayed home in 2014 too and thus gave the Senate to Republicans, where it has stayed to this day.
I don't know if they will get engaged. Only if the Republicans nominate Trump, DeSantis or some other loser will enough of them come out and likely vote Biden back in. If Tim Scott or Tom Cotton are nominated, the Republicans have the advantage.
Landrieu seems invisible, and McAuliffe has to overcome his new image as a loser. Gavin Newsom could run, but the Saturn indicator shows he might lose. It looks like the Dems are stuck with Biden as of now. No-one other than those 3 among the Democrats can be elected, as far as I can see.
The young have never understood the nuances of governing, because civics was never a priority in their schools. They do understand sclerosis though, and they see if fully on the Democratic side. The Republicans, on the other hand, seem fully capable of reeking havoc. The young hate the GOP plicies, but see them as dynamic. The Dems better get dynamic as well.
If the Dems plan to regain the upper hand, and that isn't just the White House, they'll need a leader that actually leads. You mentined Gavin Newsom, who might be too Left Coast, but Gretchen Whitmer and J. B. Pritzker also come to mind. I don't think Andy Beshear wants the job, but he's young and vibrant. Phil Murphy and Kathy Hochul are too Northeast for this round, I think. So I'm going with Gretchen. She's smart and tough -- both attributes needed in 2024.
Horoscope scores:
Gavin Newsom, 9-2, Saturn Return due
J B Pritzker 14-9
Gretchen Whitmer, 15-13, Saturn Return due in 2030, likely a one-termer at best
Andy Beshear, 6-10, sure loser
Phil Murphy, 7-5
Kathleen Hochul, 7-11, sure loser
Biden (16-6) will win over Trump (9-4), or DeSantis (12-10). I don't think any of the above can win except Newsom. Maybe Pritzker, but he faces headwinds. Democrats will likely lose if the Republicans pick Tim Scott (17-7), or maybe Tom Cotton. Marco Rubio (13-7) and Greg Abbott (12-7) are possibilities too. Democrats will win if Mitch Landrieu (19-2) runs, and probably if Terry McAuliffe (10-3) runs. If Gavin Newsom is nominated, it's a crap shoot because of his Saturn Return. McKinley (13-3) was the only one who won under this transit, but he was immediately assassinated. I don't see that happening to Newsom, but it's a danger signal of a loss.
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html
I see no reason to think a candidate's native region is a factor, unless being from the "Left Coast" is the reason Newsom loses due to his Saturn Return, and in spite of his high score.