Is China in a 2T-ish era?

[Eric the Green]

(08-01-2022, 08:54 PM)JasonBlack Wrote:

(08-01-2022, 07:14 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The bosses want Taiwan; I don't notice any fervor among the people for this. Any such fervor is just government programming. I don't see any massive protests. I just see consolidation of authority. I don't think this society is capable of turnings.

Speaking impressionistically, Chinese generational cycles seem to go something more like 2T-->4T-->1T. Some sort of revolt/revolution (ex: Taiping Rebellion), followed by despots consolidating power (ex: Maoist Regime), then when the despot dies off, people rebuild things and the people experience growth and normalcy for a few decades (ex: Deng Xiaoping era). The masses of China have had neither the largess nor the personal freedom to have a 3T. 2Ts aggressively usher in eras of individualism, 3Ts are reliant on a preexisting mood of individualism, but the collectivist instincts of China typically crush this before it has a chance to do more than set off a few sparks.

That's possible. David Kaiser mentioned that some ancient societies like Greece would put up leaders that could have seemed like either Awakening or Crisis leaders, and it was hard to tell the difference from Pericles' speeches whether he was a Prophet or a Civic. I think such primitive societies regarding governance and social order as China and Russia often move through history like a pendulum rather than a circle. That means just two stages: crisis, and stagnation. The latter is their version of a 1T. Maybe China is entering a crisis period, while Russia is definitely in a stagnation.

The USA will enter this pendulum pattern if Trump Republicans win any more elections, and if the Democrats don't keep control throughout the 4T, which will end sometime in 2029 if Democrats keep control and the 4T is thus successful. By the end of this century, if the Trump Republicans take control at any time in this 4T, even this pendulum could stop swinging. And the pendulum moves much more slowly than a saeculum in more-advanced countries does.

Perhaps a more moderate and sane version of a Republican presidency, with someone like the high-horoscope-scoring Spencer Cox (current Utah governor) at the helm, will take power during portions of a 1T, should we enter it-- which we will not do if any Republican wins the presidency before 2032.

I hear that Mr. Howe has suggested in an interview that this 4T could last until 2033. This may align with what I am suggesting here. The early years of a 1T normally see some lingering instability, and that to me looks like the early 2030s. But I think things will be settling in to a new consensus in those years, despite some appearances, if we achieve it. And if we do, it will essentially arrive in 2030, especially if Newsom is the new president by then.