08-02-2022, 01:08 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2022, 01:11 PM by Eric the Green.)
(08-02-2022, 11:13 AM)David Horn Wrote:(08-01-2022, 11:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I hear that Mr. Howe has suggested in an interview that this 4T could last until 2033. This may align with what I am suggesting here. The early years of a 1T normally see some lingering instability, and that to me looks like the early 2030s. But I think things will be settling in to a new consensus in those years, despite some appearances, if we achieve it. And if we do, it will essentially arrive in 2030, especially if Newsom is the new president by then.
It's hard to accept a 25 year 4T. Crises tend to be shorter, if for no other reason than their intensity. We should be at an inflection point. Are we? If so, it's not noticable in any definitive way. The GOP move to fringe continues (is there more fringe available to their right?), and the Dems continue to fight among themselves. This all seems to be more of the same.
It's possible that the GOP moves too far, alienates enough of their own base and most Independents to create a true shift, but the hyper-woke Dems still have a spoiler role to play. Assuming they don't this time, the 4T may end on schedule. That's a lot of assuming.
I didn't mention a 25-year 4T, but that's what Howe seems to be suggesting. I think rather we could see a 1T starting in 2029-2030, but 1Ts still have some leftover instability or reactionism going on, like McCarthyism or the hate in the days of Reconstruction, or the Alien and Sedition Acts, but this does not disturb the overall consensus having been reached. Overall, the late 1940s were cheerful and relatively stable. That's what I see for the early 2030s, and Howe might be defining this as 4 extra years of the 4T.
It all depends on whether the Democrats can hold on now and extend their power a bit, and hold it through the rest of the 4T. Otherwise, I think what is more likely is not only a 4T lasting 25 years, but lasting 4000 years.
Right now, a new version of the BBBBB has been approved by Manchin. Unless some other block appears, it will pass next week and that could be a start toward some progress like I predicted. I think the midterms need to turn out well for this progress to continue, and right now the two Parties are in a dead heat.
The Democrats are not fighting among themselves. One or two senators blocking things is not a "fight among themselves". It is the result of not enough Democrats having been elected. But pundits and voters still see it as a "fight among themselves." It is NOT. It is a struggle between 48 Democrats and 2 phony Democrats.