2022 midterm polls

[Eric the Green]

(08-02-2022, 10:57 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-01-2022, 03:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Nah, Biden can win, and he's all the Dems got. He still intends to run. Gretchen Whitmer will never win. Newsom can win, but he won't run if Biden does, and he's more likely to win in 2028 than in 2024. It is wishful thinking indeed to think any other Democrat besides Biden can beat a strong Republican. And yes, Biden can do dramatic. Again I remind you of his two speeches at the start of the year. I posted them here. He is not dramatic a lot of the time, but when he revs himself up, he is.

Biden is both an incrementalist and an institutionalist.  Those may be admirable traits for a 1T President like Eisenhower (though Ike was a Lost, not a Silent) or during quiet times in any Turning, that's far from the case today.  I-dotting and T-crossing grate when anyone alive and well knows the critical state of just about everything.

Eric Wrote:Obama: "you can't opt out because you're not sufficently inspired by this or that particular candidate. This is not a rock concert. This is not Coachella." Millennials need to learn that, and accept President Grandpa. They and everyone needs to stop blaming Biden for inflation. If they do, his poll numbers will rise.

What they need to do and what they will, in fact, actually do have almost nothing to do with one another.  Millennials have proven to be too tied to their devices to see the world as it is, and their expectations are in the instant-gratification domain.  In short, Biden is President Grandpa, and that's not changing.

Eric Wrote:Rational Republicans have no chance to be nominated. Zero. Even the high-scoring New York governor Pataki gave up even before the primaries. Low-scoring Hogan has zero chance. The Republicans will put up DeSantis, or maybe Trump. Biden can beat either of them. Tim Scott has no poll standing, but he would if he runs, and he'd be tough for any Democrat to beat. Tom Cotton could be a successor to Trump too and could win. But there is no hope for any of these irrational Republicans to be a good president.

I doubt Hogan would consider running in the GOP primaries this year, and if he does, it will be as a spoiler.  He could be tapped on a Unity ticket (not done since Lincoln), but that would require a Dem willing to take that risk -- again.

Eric Wrote:Polls show enthusiasm among Democrats voters is up to 76%, while the strange, kooky, cruel Republicans still have 88% enthusiasm for their horrific destruction, according to NBC as of yesterday. Generic polls for the midterms between Democrats and Republicans are even at this point. The Dems need to be at least a few points ahead to win.

Here we agree.  Assuming the worst negatives moderate: gas and food prices decline, foreign affairs stay either in the backgound or a few more 'wins' emerge, then the anger may abate and nature of the GOP could become the primary issue.  The 1/6 Commission has been skillful.  Now, the Justice Department needs to step-up.  The MAGA hard core are not reachable, but other, less wacky Republicans and most Independents are.  The shift doesn't need to be huge.

I don't see Biden as any more incrementalist than any of the candidates you have suggested. Biden had adopted some of Bernie's platform planks and priorities. He offered a transformational program typical of 4Ts. Because not enough Democrats were elected to the Senate with him, 2 senators have changed his agenda into a more incrementalist one. That was done by Manchin and Sinema, NOT Biden. No president, I don't care how young or how charismatic, can get much of anything done without a congress.

Millennials proved that they could come out during midterms in 2018. Obama's urging helped. Whether that happens in 2022 is still in question. Rising enthusiasm and the dead heat now in the polls shows it is possible.

Hogan said he believes in a Republican Party like Reagan's. That is too far right for a Democrat to add to a ticket.