Is China in a 2T-ish era?

[JasonBlack]

(08-02-2022, 11:13 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-01-2022, 11:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I hear that Mr. Howe has suggested in an interview that this 4T could last until 2033. This may align with what I am suggesting here. The early years of a 1T normally see some lingering instability, and that to me looks like the early 2030s. But I think things will be settling in to a new consensus in those years, despite some appearances, if we achieve it. And if we do, it will essentially arrive in 2030, especially if Newsom is the new president by then.

It's hard to accept a 25 year 4T. Crises tend to be shorter, if for no other reason than their intensity. We should be at an inflection point. Are we? If so, it's not noticable in any definitive way. The GOP move to fringe continues (is there more fringe available to their right?), and the Dems continue to fight among themselves. This all seems to be more of the same.

It's possible that the GOP moves too far, alienates enough of their own base and most Independents to create a true shift, but the hyper-woke Dems still have a spoiler role to play. Assuming they don't this time, the 4T may end on schedule. That's a lot of assuming.

2033 is about where I see it ending too, for more or less the same reasons (with a different partisan slant of course). 4Ts can't resolve until you...actually do something about problems that created them. We aren't even close yet.