Is China in a 2T-ish era?

[David Horn]

(08-02-2022, 03:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(08-02-2022, 01:38 PM)JasonBlack Wrote:

(08-02-2022, 11:13 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-01-2022, 11:25 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I hear that Mr. Howe has suggested in an interview that this 4T could last until 2033. This may align with what I am suggesting here. The early years of a 1T normally see some lingering instability, and that to me looks like the early 2030s. But I think things will be settling in to a new consensus in those years, despite some appearances, if we achieve it. And if we do, it will essentially arrive in 2030, especially if Newsom is the new president by then.

It's hard to accept a 25 year 4T.  Crises tend to be shorter, if for no other reason than their intensity.  We should be at an inflection point.  Are we?  If so, it's not noticable in any definitive way.  The GOP move to fringe continues (is there more fringe available to their right?), and the Dems continue to fight among themselves.  This all seems to be more of the same.  

It's possible that the GOP moves too far, alienates enough of their own base and most Independents to create a true shift, but the hyper-woke Dems still have a spoiler role to play.  Assuming they don't this time, the 4T may end on schedule.  That's a lot of assuming.

2033 is about where I see it ending too, for more or less the same reasons (with a different partisan slant of course). 4Ts can't resolve until you...actually do something about problems that created them. We aren't even close yet.

Yes indeed, I agree, and from my side those problems are #1 climate breakdown, and #2 inequality, and #3 assaults on democracy and voting rights (including big money ownership of the process, and police abuse), and #4 gun massacres-- and not abuse of welfare programs.

And I might add that unless the rising power of tyranny abroad is not reversed, we may be fighting pig dictators like Putin and Xi Jinping too. And maybe a civil war against the Proud Boy types too.

When we agree, we agree!  If Jason wants to get overheated about "welfare abuse", start with the subsidies to the wealthy and large corporations.  It's stunning that we need to bribe (word chosen for full accuracy) Big Tech to make chips in the US by building them factories and training their workforce.  If you want to be head-slap stunned: Forbes has an article bewailing the fact that Big Tech can't send that money to China where wages are lower -- US taxpayer money!!!

The biggest welfare recipients are in the upper class and the corporate entities they own.  Yet, we need to make our own chips and the GOP is not going to force Big Tech to repay the favor in any way.  We did the same for many things, including oil and food, so it's not a new concept.