Is China in a 2T-ish era?

[Eric the Green]

(08-02-2022, 04:46 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-02-2022, 01:08 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I didn't mention a 25-year 4T, but that's what Howe seems to be suggesting. I think rather we could see a 1T starting in 2029-2030, but 1Ts still have some leftover instability or reactionism going on, like McCarthyism or the hate in the days of Reconstruction, or the Alien and Sedition Acts, but this does not disturb the overall consensus having been reached. Overall, the late 1940s were cheerful and relatively stable. That's what I see for the early 2030s, and Howe might be defining this as 4 extra years of the 4T.

I remember the early 50s as being highly communal but less than fully satisfying in a material sense.  We had paper and metal drives, collected trading stamps and kept our belts a bit tight, because the war was still there in the near past.  Korea didn't help either.  That analogy is apt to today too.

Eric Wrote:It all depends on whether the Democrats can hold on now and extend their power a bit, and hold it through the rest of the 4T. Otherwise, I think what is more likely is not only a 4T lasting 25 years, but lasting 4000 years...

The Democrats are not fighting among themselves. One or two senators blocking things is not a "fight among themselves". It is the result of not enough Democrats having been elected. But pundits and voters still see it as a "fight among themselves." It is NOT. It is a struggle between 48 Democrats and 2 phony Democrats.

Manchin and Sinema aren't the real story.  The in-fighting is more local: the woke versus average folks.  Calling the pregnant "birthing people" raises the hair on the back of more heads than it soothes with its political correctness.  That's the real fight, and it's alienating people who have good intentions, yet find the hyper-woke insulting and antagonistic -- not a good model for gaining support.

I say that if some people are upset with some "woke" loudmouth people who make extreme statements or insist on "correct" language, that is their OWN fault. These hyperwoke politically-correct folks don't win elections, and it's elections that decide policy. Maybe there are a few hyper-woke representatives in congress, and they sound extreme sometimes too, but they have to cooperate with the rest of their Party to get anything done. And they do.

Manchin and Sinema ARE the real story. There are 48 center-left and left Democrats in the Senate who cooperate and make good proposals and vote for them, and about 217 in the House who do the same, and 2 senators who seriously water down the proposals or block them entirely by upholding the filibuster. Given that, there is no basis for saying that there is infighting in the Democratic Party. What counts is what comes out of the government and what the voters do, not what some extreme big mouths say who have no say.

The problem thus is in the middle of the spectrum, not on the left.

And the problem is anyone in the middle who is horrified by political correctness to the extent that they don't support real Democratic candidates, and fall to the propaganda like antifa and black lives matter causing riots and open borders and pronouns and critical race theory and welfare cheats and all that jazz.