2022 midterm polls

[Eric the Green]

(08-02-2022, 04:30 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-02-2022, 01:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I don't see Biden as any more incrementalist than any of the candidates you have suggested. Biden had adopted some of Bernie's platform planks and priorities. He offered a transformational program typical of 4Ts. Because not enough Democrats were elected to the Senate with him, 2 senators have changed his agenda into a more incrementalist one. That was done by Manchin and Sinema, NOT Biden. No president, I don't care how young or how charismatic, can get much of anything done without a congress.

Observe the difference in style between the two parties. McConnell, certainly no spring chicken himself, is always confrontational. When he ran the House, Paul Ryan was as well. Trump takes that to the outer limit. All three are admired, and attract more followers than they repel -- and that with a platform that is toxic to the max. Dems universally come across as sympathetic but weak. These days, weak is a deal breaker.

Eric Wrote:Millennials proved that they could come out during midterms in 2018. Obama's urging helped. Whether that happens in 2022 is still in question. Rising enthusiasm and the dead heat now in the polls shows it is possible.

Assuming that they are as scared now as they were then, you might have a point. My fear: they see nothing in the Dems and decide to just sit this one out. There is no way to know just how savvy they are as a generation. Sometimes they seem on top of the game, and other times they seem almost child like. If they fail to understand the long term risk of short term actions, this could get very ugly.

Eric Wrote:Hogan said he believes in a Republican Party like Reagan's. That is too far right for a Democrat to add to a ticket.

I don't see Hogan entering, but note: he's a doer not a talker. When Maryland needed masks and PPE in the early days of the pandemic, he and his Korean wife contacted the Korean government and asked for help. They got an entire charter flight full of masks and other personal protection -- in two days. Forget his philosophy and concentrate on him as an executor.

That is to Hogan's credit. Not enough credit for me, but then I am not a Maryland voter.

I'm not sure what weak vs confrontational means. The Democrats don't seem able to choose a strong progressive many times. And what does that mean, either? You also caution against those who are too confrontational in the way leftists often are. Republicans admire their confrontational and emotional candidates; but many Democrats are independents are turned off by their Democratic confrontational and emotional candidates. So you are saying. So I am not sure you have put your finger on what's wrong with the Democrats. Your finger is somewhere in the ballpark, but not quite there I guess.

I suppose what you are saying is that Democrats need to take some lessons in good theater and salesmanship. Republicans, being preachers and capitalists, maybe are more used to sales techniques. Democrats are more likely to be social workers. Of course it matters which Democrats are chosen by voters, and frequently they only look at issues and not the skill of the candidates in how they connect with the people.

But when a skilled presidential candidate does come along, like Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, then Democrats do just fine in that race. And of course the horoscope scores are a good indicator of this, even if not perfect. But it's hard to argue with Bill's score of 23-2 and Obama's score of 18-3. Such candidates are just not always available. Biden's score of 16-6 still shows he has some ability to connect, although the score does not take account of age. Gavin Newson, 9-2, is the best newer option out there, but indications are he might not do as well as needed in 2024. https://philosopherswheel.com/presidenti...ScoredWhat

What's wrong with Republicans? I don't think Democrats can help it if over 40% of Americans are absolutely insane and have made themselves incapable of doing democracy.