08-17-2022, 02:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2022, 02:40 PM by Eric the Green.)
A number of polls are saying Democrat by 4-6 points now, but 538.org keeps the Republican ones (Trafalgar and Rasmussen) in the mix, which may be a good idea since there may be some Republicans who think polls are from the Deep State or something and don't answer them. Their latest estimate is Democratic +0.5.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...ic-ballot/
538 also weighs the poll numbers according to their own evaluations, which real clear politics does not, so the latter has a consistently more-Republican slant, since it also includes Trafalgar and Rasmussen. Still, I see Real Clear now shows the generic House numbers shifted Democratic, +0.2.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...ic-ballot/
538 also weighs the poll numbers according to their own evaluations, which real clear politics does not, so the latter has a consistently more-Republican slant, since it also includes Trafalgar and Rasmussen. Still, I see Real Clear now shows the generic House numbers shifted Democratic, +0.2.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2020/