08-17-2022, 07:42 PM
I look at the polls for the US Senate and I see Republicans losing Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and not picking up any seat from an incumbent Democrat. Their nominee for the US Senate in Ohio is a disaster. Herschel Walker is a sick joke.
Republicans can lose seats in Iowa (its incumbent R Senator has rigor mortis of the mind), Florida (Rubio typically wins narrowly, but a shift can flip that), and even Texas, a state rapidly becoming more like America as a whole. Those might be long shots, but wave elections cause long-shots to win. I don't know enough about North Carolina to say anything.
Trump still casts a huge and vile shadow over this electoral cycle. The usual defeated nominee for President gets off the political scene and does not allow his weaknesses as a campaigner or administrator get in the way of the nominees of his Party. There aren't that many low-hanging fruits to go from D to R.
2022 is still a reflection of the R Senate wave of 2010. Republicans elected plenty of extremists who entered the Senate, and Democrats failed to make much headway in 2016. In the House, gerrymandering still gives Republicans an edge, but no more than the edge that they have held for ten years. Democrats can hit R pols on abortion and the Capitol Putsch.
Republicans can lose seats in Iowa (its incumbent R Senator has rigor mortis of the mind), Florida (Rubio typically wins narrowly, but a shift can flip that), and even Texas, a state rapidly becoming more like America as a whole. Those might be long shots, but wave elections cause long-shots to win. I don't know enough about North Carolina to say anything.
Trump still casts a huge and vile shadow over this electoral cycle. The usual defeated nominee for President gets off the political scene and does not allow his weaknesses as a campaigner or administrator get in the way of the nominees of his Party. There aren't that many low-hanging fruits to go from D to R.
2022 is still a reflection of the R Senate wave of 2010. Republicans elected plenty of extremists who entered the Senate, and Democrats failed to make much headway in 2016. In the House, gerrymandering still gives Republicans an edge, but no more than the edge that they have held for ten years. Democrats can hit R pols on abortion and the Capitol Putsch.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.