2022 midterm polls

[Eric the Green]

(08-17-2022, 07:42 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I look at the polls for the US Senate and I see Republicans losing Senate seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and not picking up any seat from an incumbent Democrat. Their nominee for the US Senate in Ohio is a disaster. Herschel Walker is a sick joke.

Republicans can lose seats in Iowa (its incumbent R Senator has rigor mortis of the mind), Florida (Rubio typically wins narrowly, but a shift can flip that), and even Texas, a state rapidly becoming more like America as a whole. Those might be long shots, but wave elections cause long-shots to win. I don't know enough about North Carolina to say anything.

Trump still casts a huge and vile shadow over this electoral cycle. The usual defeated nominee for President gets off the political scene and does not allow his weaknesses as a campaigner or administrator get in the way of the nominees of his Party. There aren't that many low-hanging fruits to go from D to R.

2022 is still a reflection of the R Senate wave of 2010. Republicans elected plenty of extremists who entered the Senate, and Democrats failed to make much headway in 2016. In the House, gerrymandering still gives Republicans an edge, but no more than the edge that they have held for ten years. Democrats can hit R pols on abortion and the Capitol Putsch.

I have seen no polls on the Iowa senate race, but I found one:
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/...062297002/

The geriatric senator Grassley still leads by 8 points, and Iowa voted for Trump by 6, so it looks doubtful. North Carolina polls are tied, so a flip there is more likely than in Texas or Iowa.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...-carolina/
But Ohio Republicans nominated a new Trumpist extremist candidate and moderately-liberal Congressman Ryan is leading by 1 point, down after one poll from 4 points; a flip is more likely there than in Texas and Iowa which have very conservative but not extremist incumbent candidates. Knocking out Rubio in FL seems unlikely, but he has a strong opponent Val Demings. She has been behind, but a new poll reported by The Hill gives her a 4 point lead. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/36...ubio-poll/
But that seems to be the only poll giving Demings a lead so far: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...2/florida/

Georgia, Nevada, Arizona and New Hampshire have close races, but are likely to stay Democratic unless a Republican wave develops. The Democratic gain in PA seems a done deal, and it would seem like Wisconsin is a good bet for a flip too. Democrat Mandela Barnes leads most polls narrowly, but 538 has not given an overall estimate yet.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...wisconsin/