08-18-2022, 01:23 PM
Wave elections are those in which pols of the Other Party who had been long-shots often win even without the Other Guy saying something stupid (like "legitimate rape") or being caught in a scandal. Many are reverse-waves that take out the unlikely winners of the previous election who have proved mediocrities or worse or are bad matches for their communities. That is one way to practically ensure that one does not get re-elected.
So, what would a Republican wave look like in 2022? Democrats would lose fifty or so House seats, and Republicans would win practically all open Senate seats and pick off some surprises. Those surprises are the long-shots.
We start with the assumption that most incumbents (aside from the appointed variety who never showed that they were electable) win. Most incumbents connect with their constituents, don't get enmeshed in personal scandals, aren't corrupt, and are reasonably competent. Most know enough to leave when they are no longer up to the job. Most show in the next election why they got elected the previous time.
So far, so good. Obviously, demographic change can change the environment; a state hemorrhaging reliable Democratic voters due to the decline of one or more industries (West Virginia used to be Safe D because or the powerful United Mine Workers' Union), making the state by default more rural and less urban and suburban. (Iowa and Ohio may be going that way). On the other hand, the growth of the Mexican-American component of the electorate has made California, Illinois, and New Mexico into Democratic bastions and put Colorado and Nevada on the brink of such, and transformed Arizona into a swing state from a solid-R state. Texas, you are next. Virginia was a strong R state from the 1950's until about fifteen years ago when it no longer was because people from Northern states moved there for the booming economy and brought their liberal values with them. North Carolina and Georgia are less so. But unless a really-large state is in question, those effects are often a wash.
2016 should have been a wave election for Democrats in the Senate, but wasn't. 2022 is the next chance. Republicans began with a 50-50 split of the Senate with few reasonable chances of flipping some Senate seats from D to R. They threw away their chances in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire, so there won't be an R majority in the Senate unless something catastrophic happens to the Democrats. Time is running out for that.
So peel away the chances of the Republicans keeping a tie in the Senate one by one. Start with Pennsylvania. Pat Toomey, someone who believes that no human suffering is excessive so long as corporate profits arise from such, chose to leave after two terms. His intended R successor has proved less than effective at winning an open seat. Ron Johnson is an extremist in a moderate state. He barely got re-elected when Trump won the state. If he goes down, then that is 48.
Republicans have an open seat in Ohio to fill, and the person that they nominated is a political disaster. Few could have foreseen that a year ago, but so it is. 47.
Beyond that, the Republicans have Senators who looked like nearly-sure things to win re-election in 2022 a year ago. What looked like Democratic longshots aren't such long-shots any more. Maybe the horse-track gets a new surface and horses that had 200-1 odds against them become more like 10-1 shots.
So, what would a Republican wave look like in 2022? Democrats would lose fifty or so House seats, and Republicans would win practically all open Senate seats and pick off some surprises. Those surprises are the long-shots.
We start with the assumption that most incumbents (aside from the appointed variety who never showed that they were electable) win. Most incumbents connect with their constituents, don't get enmeshed in personal scandals, aren't corrupt, and are reasonably competent. Most know enough to leave when they are no longer up to the job. Most show in the next election why they got elected the previous time.
So far, so good. Obviously, demographic change can change the environment; a state hemorrhaging reliable Democratic voters due to the decline of one or more industries (West Virginia used to be Safe D because or the powerful United Mine Workers' Union), making the state by default more rural and less urban and suburban. (Iowa and Ohio may be going that way). On the other hand, the growth of the Mexican-American component of the electorate has made California, Illinois, and New Mexico into Democratic bastions and put Colorado and Nevada on the brink of such, and transformed Arizona into a swing state from a solid-R state. Texas, you are next. Virginia was a strong R state from the 1950's until about fifteen years ago when it no longer was because people from Northern states moved there for the booming economy and brought their liberal values with them. North Carolina and Georgia are less so. But unless a really-large state is in question, those effects are often a wash.
2016 should have been a wave election for Democrats in the Senate, but wasn't. 2022 is the next chance. Republicans began with a 50-50 split of the Senate with few reasonable chances of flipping some Senate seats from D to R. They threw away their chances in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire, so there won't be an R majority in the Senate unless something catastrophic happens to the Democrats. Time is running out for that.
So peel away the chances of the Republicans keeping a tie in the Senate one by one. Start with Pennsylvania. Pat Toomey, someone who believes that no human suffering is excessive so long as corporate profits arise from such, chose to leave after two terms. His intended R successor has proved less than effective at winning an open seat. Ron Johnson is an extremist in a moderate state. He barely got re-elected when Trump won the state. If he goes down, then that is 48.
Republicans have an open seat in Ohio to fill, and the person that they nominated is a political disaster. Few could have foreseen that a year ago, but so it is. 47.
Beyond that, the Republicans have Senators who looked like nearly-sure things to win re-election in 2022 a year ago. What looked like Democratic longshots aren't such long-shots any more. Maybe the horse-track gets a new surface and horses that had 200-1 odds against them become more like 10-1 shots.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.