Aaaaand I was 100% WRONG About China

[JasonBlack]

(08-27-2022, 08:29 PM)sbarrera Wrote: I watched the video. Zeihan paints a dark picture of the world post-globalization/free trade. China could lose 500 million people?? The U.S. must stop Russia in Ukraine to avoid nuclear escalation?? Eep.

I didn't expect it but the interviewers mention Strauss-Howe theory toward the end, though Zeihan brushes it off. It's too bad, because he is talking about the end of globalization and the end of financialization which is exactly what The Fourth Turning predicts.

I've seen posts/interviews from him before but haven't read his books, though I do have "The Accidental Superpower" on my list. I will get to it hopefully before too long.

I want to send him an email at some point to explain to him how S&H Theory works. I think the theory has recently gotten a bad reputation among certain academic circles because new recruits have been misusing it. In short, the bulk of people who read the 4th Turning are
1) Businessmen looking for a model they can quickly apply to financial decisions.
2) Lay folk who read about the works of "doomsday prophets" expecting some crystal ball predictions for how things will get better

In other words, people who have neither the curiosity, nor the patience to understand the causal mechanisms on the level of first principles. As a result, the theory gets dismissed as esoteric pop psychology, rather than being recognized for its utility for understanding a range of sociological phenomena regardless of what age of history we are in.