Aaaaand I was 100% WRONG About China

[JasonBlack]

Quote:The demographic and agricultural conditions you and your author assert are flat-out false.
The 1 child policy is gone

Just because the 1 child policy is gone does not mean the effects on previous birthrates are. After all, it takes 20 years and 9 months to grow a 20yo worker, 40 years and 9 months to grow a 40yo manager, etc. Government programs cannot add more people to a given generation the way they can add to the bank accounts of those impoverished by bad policy.

Quote: and most Chinese are still farming.

farming with less than 1/3 the arable land per capita than the world average, and less than 1/5 the arable land per capita of the United States and insane reliance on imports of fertilizer from foreign nations (namely Russia and India).
https://www.nationmaster.com/country-inf...per-capita

Quote:China has plenty of minerals, coal and solar power.

Coal they primarily get from Australia and their solar power is not nearly sufficient to meet the needs of their population.

The Chinese have never been inclined toward foreign conquest and war. Their wars are internal. You can predict an earlier such internal conflict earlier than I do, but I have my astrological means to chart events. It's hard for me to forget the cycle involved, since my own birth virtually coincided with the birth of the People's Republic. It's the same cycle that corresponds to the saeculum, too.[/quote]

Quote:It seems you may be putting too much emphasis on the Breton Woods agreement. The internecene wars came to an end because the Allies put an end to them and because Europe could see what condition they left themselves in. Imperialist rivalries came to an end too as The West was stripped of its colonies in the subsequent years.

A time of peace, cooperation and rebuilding following a time of war is not an historical anomaly for Europe (that's basically what 1Ts are). What is an historical anomaly is the way they have stayed at peace for well over half a century. This has virtually never happened in 2000+ years of European history, and it only came about because America put down her foot and kept old conflicts from reemerging.

Quote:It seems someone has to keep shipping lanes open, if we don't want greedy autocratic powers like China interfering with our global economy.

We will likely see shared agreements to secure oceanic shipping routes, but without the hegemonic oversight of the United States, such measures will lack the consistency of the current order.

Quote:But meanwhile the military industrial complex set up after the Pearl Harbor attack continued to function, sending the USA to war in Korea and Vietnam and later to Afghanistan and Iraq. US interests and Keynesian economics were hurt by this. We should pull back from such adventures; on that we agree. It increases our debt, and adds this debt excuse to neoliberal/Republican demands for less social and environmental spending.

The worst part is that we never even needed the oil reserves of the Middle East (the US has always been far more energy independent than the general public realizes). Much of such escapades were done on behalf of our European allies