10-12-2022, 01:21 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-12-2022, 01:37 PM by Eric the Green.)
Trump's approval rating has declined to almost -13. Biden had improved to -9, but now is back down to -10.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...ald-trump/
The polls are a dead heat in the senate regarding whether the Democrats can pick up two seats. Ohio and Nevada are even. If Ryan defeats MAGA Republican Vance in Ohio that would add to the likely pickup in Pennsylvania, where Fetterman leads MAGA Republican TV star Oz by 6 or 7 points. But Republicans may have a 1 point lead in Nevada where MAGA Republican Laxalt has a razor thin lead over the effective "workhorse" Democrat Cortez-Masto. Meanwhile Mandela Barnes has fallen a bit behind MAGA Republican Senator Johnson by 1 or 2 points in Wisconsin, where Johnson is able to play in ads to crime fears and make false charges that black Lt. Governor Barnes wants to defund the police. Herschel Walker is such a laughingly-bad MAGA Republican candidate that the honest, activist Rev. Sen. Warnock now leads him by 4 points in Georgia. Nevada is the only state where Republicans have a good chance for a pick-up right now.
Democrats lead the generic polls for the House by 1 point and in all recent polls, but that is probably not enough to keep the gerrymandered House Democratic. Momentum has probably returned to the Democrats though. California alone could save the House; that's why I donated to Chrissy Smith yesterday. She lost to MAGA Republican Mike Garcia by 333 votes in 2020, and this Santa Clarita suburban district north of LA became slightly more Democratic after redistricting. But given the Biden poll numbers, the race is razor thin.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...ald-trump/
The polls are a dead heat in the senate regarding whether the Democrats can pick up two seats. Ohio and Nevada are even. If Ryan defeats MAGA Republican Vance in Ohio that would add to the likely pickup in Pennsylvania, where Fetterman leads MAGA Republican TV star Oz by 6 or 7 points. But Republicans may have a 1 point lead in Nevada where MAGA Republican Laxalt has a razor thin lead over the effective "workhorse" Democrat Cortez-Masto. Meanwhile Mandela Barnes has fallen a bit behind MAGA Republican Senator Johnson by 1 or 2 points in Wisconsin, where Johnson is able to play in ads to crime fears and make false charges that black Lt. Governor Barnes wants to defund the police. Herschel Walker is such a laughingly-bad MAGA Republican candidate that the honest, activist Rev. Sen. Warnock now leads him by 4 points in Georgia. Nevada is the only state where Republicans have a good chance for a pick-up right now.
Democrats lead the generic polls for the House by 1 point and in all recent polls, but that is probably not enough to keep the gerrymandered House Democratic. Momentum has probably returned to the Democrats though. California alone could save the House; that's why I donated to Chrissy Smith yesterday. She lost to MAGA Republican Mike Garcia by 333 votes in 2020, and this Santa Clarita suburban district north of LA became slightly more Democratic after redistricting. But given the Biden poll numbers, the race is razor thin.