Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
2022 midterm polls
#82
(11-05-2022, 01:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: 538 estimate, probably optimistic from a Democratic Party standpoint:

Senate races
Georgia even (latest poll red Walker +4)
Nevada red Laxalt +1 (latest poll blue Cortez Masto +1)
Pennsylvania even  (latest poll red Oz +2)
Ohio red Vance +4 (latest poll +6)
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +1)
New Hampshire blue Hassan +3 (latest poll +5)
Wisconsin red Johnson +4 (latest poll +2)
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +5)
Washington blue Murray +6 (latest poll +2)
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +9)
Iowa red Grassley +7 (latest poll +11)

Generic House red +1
latest polls blue (latest polls blue +2, +4, +7, +6, +1, even, red +1)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

This may be the first year I'm doing my best to ignore the polls.  Are they accurate?  Who knows?  The entire methodology requires randomness and blind sampling, and neither occurs these days.  Why?  Because large swaths of the electorate decided, on their own, to be unavailable for sampling and unwilling to be polled.  So guessing and plussing-up have rplaced the underlying math, and the results will show it.  It's been bad in past years, I suspect it will be mystifyingly bonkers this time.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply


Messages In This Thread
2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 07-07-2022, 12:20 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 07-07-2022, 11:44 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Classic-Xer - 07-28-2022, 07:50 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 07-29-2022, 07:25 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 07-29-2022, 05:35 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 08-01-2022, 02:54 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-01-2022, 03:28 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 08-02-2022, 10:57 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-02-2022, 01:21 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 08-02-2022, 04:30 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-04-2022, 12:08 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 07-16-2022, 12:13 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 07-16-2022, 07:57 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-01-2022, 06:17 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-04-2022, 09:56 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-04-2022, 11:40 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-06-2022, 03:37 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-06-2022, 12:35 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-06-2022, 03:37 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 08-07-2022, 08:28 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-07-2022, 09:13 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-07-2022, 04:51 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-17-2022, 02:15 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-17-2022, 02:58 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Classic-Xer - 10-06-2022, 04:02 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-17-2022, 07:42 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-18-2022, 12:26 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-18-2022, 01:23 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-19-2022, 04:47 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-19-2022, 11:41 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 08-22-2022, 11:22 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 08-23-2022, 10:21 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 09-23-2022, 12:29 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 09-23-2022, 06:20 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 09-23-2022, 11:09 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Classic-Xer - 10-06-2022, 04:42 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 10-06-2022, 08:06 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-13-2022, 05:01 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-14-2022, 02:46 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 10-15-2022, 11:32 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 08-23-2022, 05:57 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 09-22-2022, 12:42 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 09-22-2022, 06:17 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 09-22-2022, 06:55 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 09-23-2022, 12:27 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-12-2022, 01:21 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-17-2022, 01:38 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-17-2022, 05:26 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-18-2022, 12:57 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-18-2022, 05:02 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-18-2022, 12:05 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-19-2022, 11:53 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-19-2022, 12:08 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-19-2022, 04:43 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-19-2022, 07:11 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-19-2022, 06:56 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 10-19-2022, 08:04 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-19-2022, 08:16 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 10-19-2022, 09:15 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-19-2022, 08:14 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-20-2022, 02:07 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 10-20-2022, 11:47 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-20-2022, 05:09 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-03-2022, 01:26 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-20-2022, 06:11 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-20-2022, 07:08 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-21-2022, 07:44 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 10-21-2022, 11:36 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-21-2022, 11:37 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-21-2022, 12:38 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-21-2022, 05:56 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-22-2022, 08:45 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-24-2022, 09:44 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 10-24-2022, 11:51 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-24-2022, 01:06 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-27-2022, 11:39 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 10-27-2022, 05:26 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 10-28-2022, 12:34 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-01-2022, 09:17 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-03-2022, 12:44 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-05-2022, 01:53 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 11-06-2022, 08:38 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-07-2022, 03:47 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-07-2022, 05:28 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-09-2022, 02:14 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-09-2022, 03:05 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-09-2022, 03:37 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 11-09-2022, 12:03 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-09-2022, 04:41 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 11-10-2022, 02:00 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-10-2022, 05:55 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by gabrielle - 11-10-2022, 05:18 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-10-2022, 06:01 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by David Horn - 11-11-2022, 10:27 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-09-2022, 10:06 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-11-2022, 02:19 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-11-2022, 03:49 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-12-2022, 01:28 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-12-2022, 04:05 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by galaxy - 11-13-2022, 03:41 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-14-2022, 03:01 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-14-2022, 03:13 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-14-2022, 01:50 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-14-2022, 02:45 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-14-2022, 07:58 PM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-15-2022, 01:14 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-15-2022, 07:58 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by Eric the Green - 11-15-2022, 01:21 AM
RE: 2022 midterm polls - by pbrower2a - 11-24-2022, 11:14 AM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  Trump support, Feb 2022 and later pbrower2a 16 2,962 11-20-2022, 10:33 AM
Last Post: David Horn
  Anomalous campaigns and results, 2022 pbrower2a 0 505 10-09-2022, 03:32 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Joe Biden: polls of approval and favorability pbrower2a 348 104,060 03-11-2022, 11:08 AM
Last Post: David Horn
  Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability pbrower2a 792 343,335 10-08-2021, 06:08 PM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  2022 elections: House, Senate, State governorships pbrower2a 13 4,402 04-28-2021, 04:55 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  Few Polls on Weekends naf140230 3 2,421 10-01-2016, 11:59 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green
  Chuck Todd Explains Why Democrats Shouldn’t Worry About Tightening State Polls naf140230 4 4,549 09-27-2016, 09:18 PM
Last Post: naf140230
  Americans Aren't Buying Donald Trump's Immigration Rhetoric, Polls Show naf140230 7 6,286 09-22-2016, 11:33 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a
  These 2 polls on how Hispanics feel about Trump and Clinton may surprise you Dan '82 1 2,001 09-01-2016, 09:13 AM
Last Post: Anthony '58
  Presidential candidates leading polls at this point in the campaign have almost alway naf140230 1 2,123 08-14-2016, 11:46 AM
Last Post: pbrower2a

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 30 Guest(s)