11-06-2022, 08:38 AM
(11-05-2022, 01:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: 538 estimate, probably optimistic from a Democratic Party standpoint:
Senate races
Georgia even (latest poll red Walker +4)
Nevada red Laxalt +1 (latest poll blue Cortez Masto +1)
Pennsylvania even (latest poll red Oz +2)
Ohio red Vance +4 (latest poll +6)
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +1)
New Hampshire blue Hassan +3 (latest poll +5)
Wisconsin red Johnson +4 (latest poll +2)
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +5)
Washington blue Murray +6 (latest poll +2)
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +9)
Iowa red Grassley +7 (latest poll +11)
Generic House red +1
latest polls blue (latest polls blue +2, +4, +7, +6, +1, even, red +1)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
This may be the first year I'm doing my best to ignore the polls. Are they accurate? Who knows? The entire methodology requires randomness and blind sampling, and neither occurs these days. Why? Because large swaths of the electorate decided, on their own, to be unavailable for sampling and unwilling to be polled. So guessing and plussing-up have rplaced the underlying math, and the results will show it. It's been bad in past years, I suspect it will be mystifyingly bonkers this time.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.