11-07-2022, 05:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-07-2022, 05:39 PM by Eric the Green.)
I still think the polls are relevant. Not fully accurate though.
538 estimate, probably optimistic from a Democratic Party standpoint:
Senate races
Georgia red Walker +1 (latest poll even)
Nevada red Laxalt +1.4 (latest poll +1)
Pennsylvania even (latest poll blue Fetterman +1)
Ohio red Vance +5 (latest poll +5)
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +4)
New Hampshire blue Hassan +2 (latest poll +4)
Wisconsin red Johnson +3 (latest poll +1)
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +6)
Washington blue Murray +5 (latest poll even)
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +10)
Iowa red Grassley +10 (latest poll +12)
The reddish purple states that voted for Trump in 2020 are gone. The blueish purple states that voted for Biden can still be won.
Generic House red +1
latest polls red +1, blue +1, red +4, blue +5, blue +1, even)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
538 estimate, probably optimistic from a Democratic Party standpoint:
Senate races
Georgia red Walker +1 (latest poll even)
Nevada red Laxalt +1.4 (latest poll +1)
Pennsylvania even (latest poll blue Fetterman +1)
Ohio red Vance +5 (latest poll +5)
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +4)
New Hampshire blue Hassan +2 (latest poll +4)
Wisconsin red Johnson +3 (latest poll +1)
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +6)
Washington blue Murray +5 (latest poll even)
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +10)
Iowa red Grassley +10 (latest poll +12)
The reddish purple states that voted for Trump in 2020 are gone. The blueish purple states that voted for Biden can still be won.
Generic House red +1
latest polls red +1, blue +1, red +4, blue +5, blue +1, even)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/