11-09-2022, 03:37 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2022, 05:42 PM by Eric the Green.)
I still think the polls are relevant. Let's compare to results so far (subject to edit)
538 estimate, followed by results so far
Senate races
Georgia red Walker +1 (latest poll even) blue, Warnock leading by about .5%; runoff set. Politico reports a .9% Warnock lead.
Nevada red Laxalt +1.4 (latest poll +1) Laxalt +2.7; 2 larger red counties about 2/3 counted, about 1/6 of Clark County (Las Vegas) and half of Washoe (Reno) are outstanding. If trends continue I have calculated that Laxalt could win by about 37,000 votes. red Lombardo ahead for governor by 4 points. But these races have not been called, suggesting the Dems could come back.
Pennsylvania even (latest poll blue Fetterman +1) Fetterman winning by 3% and margin is likely to grow
Ohio red Vance +5 (latest poll +5) Vance winning by about 6%
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +4) Kelly leading by 4.6 points, almost 3/4 of the vote counted. It appears Democratic counties have more votes uncounted. Hobbs is leading Lake by 0.5%. The question is how Democratic those remaining counties will be. Small Pinal county has swung from blue to majorly red now.
New Hampshire blue Hassan +2 (latest poll +4) Hassan won by about 10%
Wisconsin red Johnson +3 (latest poll +1) Johnson 1%. Dane County and Milwaukee and Waukesha vote was already in, despite reports of more expected! I think this happened in 2020 too.
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +6) Budd won by almost 4%
Washington blue Murray +5 (latest poll even) Murray won by about 14%
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +10) Rubio won by about 16 points
Iowa red Grassley +10 (latest poll +12) Grassley won easily by about 12%
Unless NV turns around, the status quo prevails. If Kelly wins then the Dems have 49, and if Warnock wins they would keep their 50 seat majority, which at least allows Biden to appoint judges, but little else.
Generic House red +1
latest polls red +1, blue +1, red +4, blue +5, blue +1, even)
Latest estimate is Republican 222, Democrats 213 but final results will not be clear for days
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09...e-00065905
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
538 estimate, followed by results so far
Senate races
Georgia red Walker +1 (latest poll even) blue, Warnock leading by about .5%; runoff set. Politico reports a .9% Warnock lead.
Nevada red Laxalt +1.4 (latest poll +1) Laxalt +2.7; 2 larger red counties about 2/3 counted, about 1/6 of Clark County (Las Vegas) and half of Washoe (Reno) are outstanding. If trends continue I have calculated that Laxalt could win by about 37,000 votes. red Lombardo ahead for governor by 4 points. But these races have not been called, suggesting the Dems could come back.
Pennsylvania even (latest poll blue Fetterman +1) Fetterman winning by 3% and margin is likely to grow
Ohio red Vance +5 (latest poll +5) Vance winning by about 6%
Arizona blue Kelly +2 (latest poll +4) Kelly leading by 4.6 points, almost 3/4 of the vote counted. It appears Democratic counties have more votes uncounted. Hobbs is leading Lake by 0.5%. The question is how Democratic those remaining counties will be. Small Pinal county has swung from blue to majorly red now.
New Hampshire blue Hassan +2 (latest poll +4) Hassan won by about 10%
Wisconsin red Johnson +3 (latest poll +1) Johnson 1%. Dane County and Milwaukee and Waukesha vote was already in, despite reports of more expected! I think this happened in 2020 too.
North Carolina red Budd +4 (latest polls +6) Budd won by almost 4%
Washington blue Murray +5 (latest poll even) Murray won by about 14%
Florida red Rubio +8 (latest poll +10) Rubio won by about 16 points
Iowa red Grassley +10 (latest poll +12) Grassley won easily by about 12%
Unless NV turns around, the status quo prevails. If Kelly wins then the Dems have 49, and if Warnock wins they would keep their 50 seat majority, which at least allows Biden to appoint judges, but little else.
Generic House red +1
latest polls red +1, blue +1, red +4, blue +5, blue +1, even)
Latest estimate is Republican 222, Democrats 213 but final results will not be clear for days
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09...e-00065905
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/