11-15-2022, 12:03 AM
A week after the election, it looks as if Trump did great harm to the electoral prospects of the GOP. What should have reasonably been the usual large midterm loss for the Party of the President has come to look much like a status quo election. Over the last century an ex-President who has either been defeated in a re-election bid or has seen that he cannot run for another term and win has typically left partisan politics for some time in which his Party can clean up its act. So it was with Hoover, Truman, LBJ, Ford, Carter, and the elder Bush. There's usually good reason for that pol to not push a failed or stale agenda. Public service without a clear connection to partisan politics, as in diplomacy (even Nixon got away with that because he was good enough at it without stepping on any partisan toes).
Nixon was disgraced and knew it. He knew his limitations and acted accordingly. Trump was disgraced, and the partisn hacks still supporting him didn't get the message until too late. (The right time would have been when he tried to blackmail President Zelensky of Ukraine, and on that the partisan refusal to censure Trump showed a craven unwillingness to exercise the wise choice of impeachment and removal. Mike Pence has never shown the erratic conduct of Donald Trump, and in view of the near-certainty of re-electing a President who wants to be re-elected as shown by Reagan, Clinton, Dubya, and Obama. Pence would have been re-elected in 2020 without incident. January 6 2021 would be just another slow news day in America. Nobody rushes the Capitol wearing shirts with images of Che Guevara, carrying Soviet flags, or singing the Internationale (the anthem of the Communist movement). Nobody erects a gallows and shouts "Hang Mike Pence!" We liberals don't do "red fascism"; we would instead be working on the midterm elections to exploit the staleness of the Trump-Pence years. We get a blue wave as Democrats hold all seats of incumbents and flip a few, and make gains in the House that get a clear majority in the House.
Trump out-shouted President Biden on the political scene, which is his wont. That did more harm than good to the GOP. President Biden needed some help, and he found the best pinch-hitter possible in Barack Obama. I see a very good ex-President who sees his patriotic duty in destroying any political legacy of Donald Trump. Obama must despise someone who is the negation of all of his political virtues, and Obama has plenty of them. He is a more convincing speaker than President Biden.
I offer a hint to all conservatives: your next effective President who does not so offends mass sensibilities of moderates will act far more like Barack Obama than like Donald Trump. Trump would be a disaster for liberals if we were foolish enough to let him have a chance to be President as a liberal Democrat. Take away the somewhat-liberal agenda and he is otherwise an arch-conservative in style and substance.
I remind you that Obama's wins are more like Eisenhower wins than like those for any Democrat before 2016. Obama won almost exclusively states that Ike also won despite being from different Parties. Just look!
e can show, for example, how states trend. In this case I suggest that even if the partisan identities of the states are almost opposite in the elections involving Eisenhower and Obama, the blocks of states involved suggest that Ike and Obama got (and lost) many of the key constituencies in their elections. This, if you are aware of my posting history, is one of my favorite contrasts.
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When all is said and done, I think that the Obama and Eisenhower Presidencies are going to look like good analogues. Both Presidents are chilly rationalists. Both are practically scandal-free administrations. Both started with a troublesome war that both found their way out of. Neither did much to 'grow' the strength of their Parties in either House of Congress. To compare ISIS to Fidel Castro is completely unfair to Fidel Castro, a gentleman by contrast to ISIS.
The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;7]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=3;9;7&AK=0;3;2&AZ=2;11;7&AR=3;6;7&CA=4;55;1&CO=4;9;1&CT=4;7;1&DE=4;3;1&DC=0;3;1&FL=4;29;1&GA=3;16;7&HI=0;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=4;20;1&IN=2;11;2&IA=4;6;1&KS=2;6;7&KY=3;8;4&LA=3;8;4&MD=4;10;1&MA=4;11;1&MI=4;16;1&MN=4;10;1&MS=3;6;7&MO=3;10;4&MT=2;3;7&NV=4;6;1&NH=4;4;1&NJ=4;14;1&NM=4;5;1&NY=4;29;1&NC=1;15;2&ND=2;3;7&OH=4;18;1&OK=2;7;7&OR=4;7;1&PA=4;20;1&RI=4;4;1&SC=3;9;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;7&UT=2;6;7&VT=4;3;1&VA=4;13;1&WA=4;12;1&WV=3;5;4&WI=4;10;1&WY=2;3;7&ME=4;2;1&ME1=4;1;1&ME2=4;1;1&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;2&NE3=2;1;7)
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once
No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.
Nixon was disgraced and knew it. He knew his limitations and acted accordingly. Trump was disgraced, and the partisn hacks still supporting him didn't get the message until too late. (The right time would have been when he tried to blackmail President Zelensky of Ukraine, and on that the partisan refusal to censure Trump showed a craven unwillingness to exercise the wise choice of impeachment and removal. Mike Pence has never shown the erratic conduct of Donald Trump, and in view of the near-certainty of re-electing a President who wants to be re-elected as shown by Reagan, Clinton, Dubya, and Obama. Pence would have been re-elected in 2020 without incident. January 6 2021 would be just another slow news day in America. Nobody rushes the Capitol wearing shirts with images of Che Guevara, carrying Soviet flags, or singing the Internationale (the anthem of the Communist movement). Nobody erects a gallows and shouts "Hang Mike Pence!" We liberals don't do "red fascism"; we would instead be working on the midterm elections to exploit the staleness of the Trump-Pence years. We get a blue wave as Democrats hold all seats of incumbents and flip a few, and make gains in the House that get a clear majority in the House.
Trump out-shouted President Biden on the political scene, which is his wont. That did more harm than good to the GOP. President Biden needed some help, and he found the best pinch-hitter possible in Barack Obama. I see a very good ex-President who sees his patriotic duty in destroying any political legacy of Donald Trump. Obama must despise someone who is the negation of all of his political virtues, and Obama has plenty of them. He is a more convincing speaker than President Biden.
I offer a hint to all conservatives: your next effective President who does not so offends mass sensibilities of moderates will act far more like Barack Obama than like Donald Trump. Trump would be a disaster for liberals if we were foolish enough to let him have a chance to be President as a liberal Democrat. Take away the somewhat-liberal agenda and he is otherwise an arch-conservative in style and substance.
I remind you that Obama's wins are more like Eisenhower wins than like those for any Democrat before 2016. Obama won almost exclusively states that Ike also won despite being from different Parties. Just look!
e can show, for example, how states trend. In this case I suggest that even if the partisan identities of the states are almost opposite in the elections involving Eisenhower and Obama, the blocks of states involved suggest that Ike and Obama got (and lost) many of the key constituencies in their elections. This, if you are aware of my posting history, is one of my favorite contrasts.
..........................
When all is said and done, I think that the Obama and Eisenhower Presidencies are going to look like good analogues. Both Presidents are chilly rationalists. Both are practically scandal-free administrations. Both started with a troublesome war that both found their way out of. Neither did much to 'grow' the strength of their Parties in either House of Congress. To compare ISIS to Fidel Castro is completely unfair to Fidel Castro, a gentleman by contrast to ISIS.
The definitive moderate Republican may have been Dwight Eisenhower, and I have heard plenty of Democrats praise the Eisenhower Presidency. He went along with Supreme Court rulings that outlawed segregationist practices, stayed clear of the McCarthy bandwagon, and let McCarthy implode.
gray -- did not vote in 1952 or 1956
white -- Eisenhower twice, Obama twice
deep blue -- Republican all four elections
light blue -- Republican all but 2012 (I assume that greater Omaha went for Ike twice)
light green -- Eisenhower once, Stevenson once, Obama never
dark green -- Stevenson twice, Obama never
pink -- Stevenson twice, Obama once
No state voted Democratic all four times, so no state is in deep red.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.