Trump support, Feb 2022 and later

[David Horn]

(11-17-2022, 02:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:47 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-17-2022, 02:34 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Gavin Newsom (horoscope score 9-2 with Uranus rising like FDR) has the potential to get noticed beyond the Sierras, and has already campaigned against DeSantis. It may happen for real someday, although I don't think 2024 is the right time. DeSantis may have ambitions to be the Bolsonaro of the north, and he has captured the land of elders and cubans, but he does not have the power to take over and lead the Trump cult to victory, unless the Democrats do something stupid like dumping Biden for Harris (horoscope score 3-17) or any other failed 2020 candidate.

Most of the Dem leadership is over 80.  That's simply not viable in an era where the emerging votes are from the young, not old farts who needed encouragement.  Biden cannot run next time, or we'll stand better than even odds of having 8 years of Ron DeSanctimonious.  Trump may create a replay of 1912, with Trump in the role of Teddy Roosevelt, but let's not try that on for size.  The fit may be less than it appears.

It does not matter if Biden is over 80 or not. If he is the only viable messenger for these times, WHICH HE IS, then young people will vote for him, and have done so, regardless of whether they give him a positive approval rating. The polls are already showing this. Steady Joe Biden MUST run next time; he is the only high-scoring candidate we have, and his speeches recently show he's up to the job of running again. People can tell that my scores are correct. That will be my rebuttal to you again and again. Democrats cannot afford to nominate weak-sounding wonks like Pete Buttigieg or gabby incoherent gals like Amy Klobuchar or flaming tempers like Cory Booker or old crusader rabbit Elizabeth Warren. Biden (score 16-6) can beat DeTramp (score only 12-10) and the Chump (9-4) too.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

You mentioned 1912, which interestingly is just about the only anomaly in my system's record.
1912: Woodrow Wilson 11-9**, Theodore Roosevelt 11-16 J, William H. Taft 12-8 J/U, SN*

Taft had a slightly higher score than Wilson, though within the margin of error perhaps, and they both had a 4th year Saturn Return problem, but Taft had to run against both Wilson and former president Teddy Roosevelt, who actually had a low score (but Jupiter rising). Taft could not run against both Democrat Wilson and former Republican President Roosevelt and win as a Republican. Trump would have the same problem if he ran against Biden on a 3rd MAGA Party ticket and against DeSantis too. The odds would favor Biden on that one, and he also beats both of them scoring wise.

The young gave the geriatric Dems Some breathing room in 2022, but they, rightly, expect their turn at bat.  At least the House caucus got the message.  Moving to the youth now would be the right thing to do, even assuming that the White House is lost in 2024.  It has to happen in the next cycle or be a rolling disaster in the following one.  Win or lose in 2024, Biden will be a boat anchor in 2028, and that one we need to win outright.