Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Russia -- generations aligned with the West?
#11
I think Justin is right.  Turchin and Nefedov have worked up secular cycles for Russia.  They have 1905-1922 a crisis phase.  I see the US crisis phase as running over 1907-1941. I see the ends of a secular cycle as happening in a 4T.  The US secular cycle crisis phase lasted 34 years because when it began the US was still in a 2T and so had to wait for the 4T to end it.  The very short crisis phase for Russia suggests that Russia had to be close to a 4T in 1905, if not already in one. Dave Kaiser opines that if 1917 is not a 4T then S&H's cycle has no meaning.

The idea that 1917 is in a 4T implies that 1991 is in a 4T, which implies a 1T since around 2000, as Justin argues.

Since I am not very familiar with Russian history I would tend to go with the secular cycles folks (most of whom are Russian) and Justin (who lived there and speaks the language).  Besides their ideas make a lot of sense.  The 1917 revolution was a state collapse and reformation like the US revolution and civil wars, both of which are 4Ts. The 1930's were a crisis for capitalistic America, they were anything but that for Soviet Russia.  WW II was part of a 4T for the US because it was part of the solution for the capitalist crisis.  For Russia, victory in the Great Patriotic War was probably the high point of the Soviet secular cycle, making the war part of a 1T.
Reply


Messages In This Thread
RE: Russia -- generations aligned with the West? - by Mikebert - 05-18-2016, 03:47 PM

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)