05-26-2016, 07:07 AM
Looks like Neil and I are on the same page. The template I have been working with is the combination of the secular cycle (SC), and the saeculum. THe SC is more or less a cycle in inequality. It predicts that inequality will peak and start heading down during the SC down phase which began in 2006 and which should end when the 4T ends.
For this to happen will require Neil's points 3, 5, and 6. As I see it, these points cannot happen without points 1 and 7, and these must happen before the other points. Points 2 and 5 are merely present observations and point 8 is extraneous.
The scenario that comes from these assumptions something like this.
2006 capital productivity shorts down because of high inequality, beginning downgrade.
2016-18 Dow begins a 10000+ point decline from its prior peak
2017-18 recession begins
2017-18 Financial crisis occurs. Wall St panics
2017-18 Ted Cruz rallies the House Leadership caucus to pressure Speaker Ryan to not act on any government rescue or stimulus plan.
2017-18 The president either defeats Ted Cruz or persuades Ryan to fold or the Second Great Depression begins here.
2020 Election becomes a referendum on the handling for the economy. In the (more likely) case that policy was ineffective (country is in depression) how the end of the 4T will play out will depend on whether Ted Cruz is ruled as a winner or a loser.
2024 4T will be already over or drawing to a close. If inequality has been effectively addressed then the SC will be ending. If not then the SC will continue until the next 4Tand resolution of inequality will have to wait until then.
For this to happen will require Neil's points 3, 5, and 6. As I see it, these points cannot happen without points 1 and 7, and these must happen before the other points. Points 2 and 5 are merely present observations and point 8 is extraneous.
The scenario that comes from these assumptions something like this.
2006 capital productivity shorts down because of high inequality, beginning downgrade.
2016-18 Dow begins a 10000+ point decline from its prior peak
2017-18 recession begins
2017-18 Financial crisis occurs. Wall St panics
2017-18 Ted Cruz rallies the House Leadership caucus to pressure Speaker Ryan to not act on any government rescue or stimulus plan.
2017-18 The president either defeats Ted Cruz or persuades Ryan to fold or the Second Great Depression begins here.
2020 Election becomes a referendum on the handling for the economy. In the (more likely) case that policy was ineffective (country is in depression) how the end of the 4T will play out will depend on whether Ted Cruz is ruled as a winner or a loser.
2024 4T will be already over or drawing to a close. If inequality has been effectively addressed then the SC will be ending. If not then the SC will continue until the next 4Tand resolution of inequality will have to wait until then.