The Partisan Divide on Issues

[Classic-Xer]

(12-04-2019, 10:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Go into mourning, knowing that the United States has become an Evil Empire, a plutocratic equivalent of the Soviet Union in the Brezhnev era.  But that is if things go as you expect. I realize that people who know you who happen to be liberals know enough to avoid discussing politics with you, so you might be clueless about how Americans think.

Here are the facts. The only ones in Trump's favor are, first, that Donald Trump can win an essentially-binary election with a mere 45% of the popular vote (that is how the Electoral College now works), which means  that  Donald Trump could get a smaller share of the popular vote than someone who won only 111 electoral votes (Dukakis, 45.62%  of the popular vote in 1988) and get re-elected. Second, the Master Class that seeks to maximize profits through monopoly pricing and Third World wages, can open the spigots for political campaigns as it did in 2010  and 2014. Third, America is not in a recession or  a war going badly.

On the other hand, the perception that Donald Trump is an obnoxious, abrasive, cruel man remains. It sickens me that he got nominated for president and then elected after he was exposed as saying  "I grab  'em by their p---ies" and after mocking a reporter on the autistic spectrum. Grabbing women by their crotches without their consent is "criminal sexual conduct" in Michigan, and rape should there be penetration. I'm not going to compare the offense that ridicule of people for handicaps  is to ethnic slurs, but I will say this about religious slurs: I am on the autistic spectrum and I often have been attacked for being Jewish on the Web... both hurt. (I fit three Jewish stereotypes  very well). 

Demographic change does not help Donald Trump or the GOP. Figuring that the electorate is mostly aged 25 to 85 and the over-55 part of the electorate is about 5% more Republican than Democratic and that the Millennial generation  is about 20% more Democratic than Republican, about 1.67% of the electorate turns over due to death and debility. That is about a 1.67%  shift from R to D in the popular vote. The GOP has nothing to offer young adults except crony capitalism that yields below-average opportunities for young adults in return for greater inequality of economic result.

Approval numbers for Donald Trump have been poor, and disapproval numbers have been even more ominous. Eleven months the 2020 election, Trump is losing every state that he lost in 2020 with approval numbers in the thirties and disapproval numbers in the high fifties and higher. Trump is being crushed in all giant cities and is losing many of the suburbs that used to go R as late as 2004. This should be little surprise, as Suburbia has a majority of adults with college educations.  Trump still wins under-educated white people, but that will not be enough in 2020.

The current President is monstrously corrupt, and he is not getting away with it. OK, the Senate might quash an impeachment, but the damage to his credibility is not going away. The negative ads practically write themselves. Certain deeds, including bribery and extortion are so vile that the attempts to commit them are themselves crimes.  (See also murder, rape, robbery, kidnapping, espionage, theft, and arson).

I see a catastrophic failure of this President by historical measures, and I thus see him losing.

I know a bunch of old diehard Democrats who recently passed away. I know of two older fellow Republican voters who passed away recently. I assume that you believe that those associated with the demographic changes are either to dumb, to poor, to timid or sensitive, to afraid or to untrusting of white people, to racially motivated and oriented, to highly educated or educated to much in liberal values and liberal beliefs, to familiar with the way the liberal system specifically caters to them and their needs, to reliant on their big government related checks, to reliant upon their welfare benefits, to cozy with their plush liberal oriented jobs and so forth to even consider voting Republican these days or in the future. Do I seem to care about what liberals think/believe these days? The liberals who know me, who now avoid discussing and possibly getting into a serious political argument with me,  learned that being conceded and being thoughtless and getting personal with me in front of others turned out to be a major mistake that ended up damaging them way more than it damaged me.