02-07-2020, 12:23 AM
(02-06-2020, 10:57 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: [quote pid='49342' dateline='1581045306']So, what happens when the spoils system can no longer be guaranteed to future generations of American blacks?
[quote pid='49340' dateline='1581038667']
I Think it would be Northern and western Blacks who switch for the most part. Remember that Minnesota's black communities demographic dynamics are atypical compared to the equivalent populations in most other states. Large Percentage of Minnesotas blacks are Muslim african immigrants mostly from the horn of Africa, this likely causes them to identify more with the pro-unchecked immigration policies of the DNC establishment. In most of the rest of the Midwest, as well as the Northeast, Mid-atlantic and western states (Florida and Texas blacks may be this category as well), Black voters are increasingly similar to non-elite white democrats. They Prefer economic reform like that proposed by Bernie, Tulsi, Yang and others as well as being increasingly swayed by president Trumps policies.
Blacks In the traditional south are still regarded by the DNC as the "establishment's firewall" they block-voted for Clinton in 2016. And Hillary pandered quite a bit to southern black voters in 2016. Bernie failed to make any headway there (he had quite a bit of success among blacks outside the south) Kamala tried to pander to them but failed miserably. Polls among their communities seem to place Biden and warren Ahead of the other candidates. Older voters also tend to have more influence there as well at least it appears so (probably due to gospel Church influence). These older Voters tend to block-vote for establishment democrats, and can be more easily scared into supporting establishment politics such as campaigning on identity politics. Although this is partially due to the legacy of the spoils system in the south but that is an entirely different subject altogether.
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More likely the south's politics would increasingly resemble that of the rest of the country. Since about 1975 there was an unspoken "gentleman's agreement" Between DNC and RNC elites in which whole sections of the political sphere in some states were parceled out into exclusive provinces, This resulted in Racial Block Voting being the norm in some regions. That was the Status Quo Prior to the Rise of Trump and Sanders in the run up to 2016.
Most likely the establishment DNC would continue trying to ramp up pandering in order to keep Southern Blacks "in the fold". The Gradual Decline of the DNC hold on Blacks would occur nationwide, but it would likely occur quite a bit faster outside of the south where depending on whether the realignment simply shifts allegiances among the existing parties OR creates a 3-Party or even a 4-party system: Northern Blacks would either join non-elite democrats in forming a separate progressive party OR they could simply switch in ever larger numbers to the GOP. Most likely blacks would be a political swing constituency 30 years from now.
More likely the DNC would continue being completely aligned with Neoliberalism (they show no signs of acknowledging the populist mood of the people) and be a minority party of the elites w/immigrants and southern blacks for the time being. The Rest of the electorate would be aligned with a conservative populist GOP, probably joined by a third more leftish populist party consisting of the political descendants of the segments of the democrats who opposed Hillary's nomination in 2016 in the first place.
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In your opinion, does Romney represent the last of the politicians related to the old "gentleman's agreement" as it pertains to the GOP. Would you say that the GOP has control over us or would you say that we have control over it these days?