11-03-2016, 11:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-03-2016, 11:57 PM by Eric the Green.)
The coming civil war may engulf us. The question is how will boomers lead and how will millennials move things. And will Xers screw things up as fully as they can, or become the constructive and capable managers of the change.
My predictions have been made, and if my prediction that Hillary wins comes true, I will continue to put them out there.
Some salient points. I appreciate the Burning Platform essay. I am not quite as pessimistic as he, because I want to believe there are still vestiges of idealism left among the boomers. Some of us still feel as youthful as if it was still 40 or 50 years ago, and our time is just now coming. So why would we all just blow it on whining about taxes and income? The Woodstock Generation is still around. We were not about insecurity then.
As in previous 4Ts, the economic collapse comes first in time. If anything, the war that follows has stimulated the economic blood and powered us into the next 1T and 2T. I am predicting this again. Sure, the "system" is a house of cards built on greed and deception and not enough has been done to correct it. A damp recovery moves forward in spite of the Republicans' best efforts to stop and reverse it. Much will depend on whether Trump gets in and screws it all up. The markets are jittery because they know that unproductive volatility and incompetence are not good even for the owners and managers of the system. They might even have been happier with Bernie Sanders. So, I expect a recession around 2019, but it will be coupled with a green energy boom, or at least a boomlet. The transition will be under way, disturbing the markets and the old dirty industries, but stimulating the new ones.
The 2020s will be a decade of change, and probably of war. The economy will likely recover more fully, powered by whatever warmaking industries get going as well as green energy. But what kind of war? Probably both kinds, because a major outbreak will occur in Asia (probably middle east; maybe Asia too) at the end of 2020 that will require the USA to help but not intervene. Another terrorist war or further movement against dictators will be in the works. It may take some time to resolve the current upheavals and deal with related new ones. US intervention is likely in 2025-2026, to be resolved around 2028-29.
What about a civil war? You may know I have predicted this possibility, based on my cosmic crystal ball, for 4 decades at least; long before people started talking about red states and blue states or even militias. Our country is polarized much like in the 1850s. The issue and the geography is less clear-cut than in 1860, so for some the divide may be bridgeable. There are things the two sides agree on. One lady author proposes that some of the red state folks agree with taking money out of politics and stopping pollution. We may agree with revising trade policy. And agreements on infrastructure and entitlements may be possible, at some point. There are several ways in which the bridge may not reach far enough however.
1)social/religious issues like abortion; attachment to traditional culture amid relentless change
2)The main one: the meme of less government, lower taxes, trickle-down economics. This belief stalemates government and frustrates all attempts to solve problems.
3)the above also powered by the racist dog whistles; many resent social programs their taxes sometimes pay for because they supposedly help those "who are lazy and don't work;" in other words, other races and genders. Poor and middle class angry older white men have been conditioned to blame these others competing with them for the pie that the bosses have diminished with their trickle-down economics scheme. These feelings are strongest in the same red states where traditional religious culture is strong; a deadly combo.
4)gun fanaticism; part of the same culture. The fanatics are afraid that the libruls are coming to take their guns away. They try to deceive the people by talking about "freedom" and "the constitution," just as the trickle-downers talk about their phony "freedom" too. Gun control, change to the Heller decision, and/or bans on assault weapons, or attempts to disarm or confiscate the stockpile of some militia group, could tick them off.
5)part of the same current revolt against other races is "anti-globalism" and resurgent nationalism, which is gaining traction now. But this is one are where it's possible for the two sides to agree, if the target ends up being corporate rather than internationalist, multi-cultural globalism.
So what I have predicted is a right-wing violent rebellion, which the alt-right is openly calling for nowadays, and which Trump is fanning the flames for. But I think it can be put down rather quickly, to the total and deadly detriment of the rebels. The armed forces would back the state. I would expect the last embers of the flames would be put out within a year or two, in the period around 2025-2028. At the same time, I think the rebels will be resisting very rapid progress that had been moving in the 2020s, threatening all their values and ideology, and so the 2020s will also be a Revolution, led from the top, if we are so fortunate.
The other possibility is a left-wing Revolution against a corporate master government, which would be more likely if I am wrong and the economy collapses. But it will take defections to the Left from the armed forces in order to succeed; occupations of Wall street and such will not bring the monolith down. For that reason, I think a right-wing rebellion is more likely; it is already talked about and seems in the cards. A left wing rebellion seems more likely to end in defeat for the Left than a right-wing one, leading to a declining banana republic that makes the Gilded Age seem to be made of copper instead of gold.
So, I predict civil war and world war all at once, but not another economic collapse. But it may actually be a milder 4T than the previous four. That's because America in this 4T is in the last phase of the American High; we started out in a very prosperous and powerful place, and those conditions are still largely in place. And Boomers may be more peace-oriented than previous prophets, and SOME of them will make good leaders who can see beyond the obvious and work to heal some of the divisions. And the world should be able to come together once it is determined to do so, using force and diplomacy to put an end to the bloody middle east and asian upheavels and institute justice. 4Ts are times when things are resolved, at least for a while. I think they will be.
One reason for my prediction is that, contrary to those who say the American Revolution began a mega-saeculum, I go by the 500-year cycle of civilization, which has an impressive, long background in history, and we are still in the Renaissance phase of THAT cycle, since it is international, not national; and since it started around 1892; not 1776. So we're not in a "mega-unravelling," and the fortunes of the USA itself are not the main issue. This also takes into account the fact that our civilization and its cycles are The West, NOT the United States of America, and that the new cycle represents the birth of world civilization out of the world wars. And the founder of the previous cycle of OUR Western Civilization was Henry the Navigator and NOT George Washington.
http://philosopherswheel.com/fortunes.htm
If Trump wins, however, my predictive abilities are in doubt, and all bets are off.
My predictions have been made, and if my prediction that Hillary wins comes true, I will continue to put them out there.
Some salient points. I appreciate the Burning Platform essay. I am not quite as pessimistic as he, because I want to believe there are still vestiges of idealism left among the boomers. Some of us still feel as youthful as if it was still 40 or 50 years ago, and our time is just now coming. So why would we all just blow it on whining about taxes and income? The Woodstock Generation is still around. We were not about insecurity then.
As in previous 4Ts, the economic collapse comes first in time. If anything, the war that follows has stimulated the economic blood and powered us into the next 1T and 2T. I am predicting this again. Sure, the "system" is a house of cards built on greed and deception and not enough has been done to correct it. A damp recovery moves forward in spite of the Republicans' best efforts to stop and reverse it. Much will depend on whether Trump gets in and screws it all up. The markets are jittery because they know that unproductive volatility and incompetence are not good even for the owners and managers of the system. They might even have been happier with Bernie Sanders. So, I expect a recession around 2019, but it will be coupled with a green energy boom, or at least a boomlet. The transition will be under way, disturbing the markets and the old dirty industries, but stimulating the new ones.
The 2020s will be a decade of change, and probably of war. The economy will likely recover more fully, powered by whatever warmaking industries get going as well as green energy. But what kind of war? Probably both kinds, because a major outbreak will occur in Asia (probably middle east; maybe Asia too) at the end of 2020 that will require the USA to help but not intervene. Another terrorist war or further movement against dictators will be in the works. It may take some time to resolve the current upheavals and deal with related new ones. US intervention is likely in 2025-2026, to be resolved around 2028-29.
What about a civil war? You may know I have predicted this possibility, based on my cosmic crystal ball, for 4 decades at least; long before people started talking about red states and blue states or even militias. Our country is polarized much like in the 1850s. The issue and the geography is less clear-cut than in 1860, so for some the divide may be bridgeable. There are things the two sides agree on. One lady author proposes that some of the red state folks agree with taking money out of politics and stopping pollution. We may agree with revising trade policy. And agreements on infrastructure and entitlements may be possible, at some point. There are several ways in which the bridge may not reach far enough however.
1)social/religious issues like abortion; attachment to traditional culture amid relentless change
2)The main one: the meme of less government, lower taxes, trickle-down economics. This belief stalemates government and frustrates all attempts to solve problems.
3)the above also powered by the racist dog whistles; many resent social programs their taxes sometimes pay for because they supposedly help those "who are lazy and don't work;" in other words, other races and genders. Poor and middle class angry older white men have been conditioned to blame these others competing with them for the pie that the bosses have diminished with their trickle-down economics scheme. These feelings are strongest in the same red states where traditional religious culture is strong; a deadly combo.
4)gun fanaticism; part of the same culture. The fanatics are afraid that the libruls are coming to take their guns away. They try to deceive the people by talking about "freedom" and "the constitution," just as the trickle-downers talk about their phony "freedom" too. Gun control, change to the Heller decision, and/or bans on assault weapons, or attempts to disarm or confiscate the stockpile of some militia group, could tick them off.
5)part of the same current revolt against other races is "anti-globalism" and resurgent nationalism, which is gaining traction now. But this is one are where it's possible for the two sides to agree, if the target ends up being corporate rather than internationalist, multi-cultural globalism.
So what I have predicted is a right-wing violent rebellion, which the alt-right is openly calling for nowadays, and which Trump is fanning the flames for. But I think it can be put down rather quickly, to the total and deadly detriment of the rebels. The armed forces would back the state. I would expect the last embers of the flames would be put out within a year or two, in the period around 2025-2028. At the same time, I think the rebels will be resisting very rapid progress that had been moving in the 2020s, threatening all their values and ideology, and so the 2020s will also be a Revolution, led from the top, if we are so fortunate.
The other possibility is a left-wing Revolution against a corporate master government, which would be more likely if I am wrong and the economy collapses. But it will take defections to the Left from the armed forces in order to succeed; occupations of Wall street and such will not bring the monolith down. For that reason, I think a right-wing rebellion is more likely; it is already talked about and seems in the cards. A left wing rebellion seems more likely to end in defeat for the Left than a right-wing one, leading to a declining banana republic that makes the Gilded Age seem to be made of copper instead of gold.
So, I predict civil war and world war all at once, but not another economic collapse. But it may actually be a milder 4T than the previous four. That's because America in this 4T is in the last phase of the American High; we started out in a very prosperous and powerful place, and those conditions are still largely in place. And Boomers may be more peace-oriented than previous prophets, and SOME of them will make good leaders who can see beyond the obvious and work to heal some of the divisions. And the world should be able to come together once it is determined to do so, using force and diplomacy to put an end to the bloody middle east and asian upheavels and institute justice. 4Ts are times when things are resolved, at least for a while. I think they will be.
One reason for my prediction is that, contrary to those who say the American Revolution began a mega-saeculum, I go by the 500-year cycle of civilization, which has an impressive, long background in history, and we are still in the Renaissance phase of THAT cycle, since it is international, not national; and since it started around 1892; not 1776. So we're not in a "mega-unravelling," and the fortunes of the USA itself are not the main issue. This also takes into account the fact that our civilization and its cycles are The West, NOT the United States of America, and that the new cycle represents the birth of world civilization out of the world wars. And the founder of the previous cycle of OUR Western Civilization was Henry the Navigator and NOT George Washington.
http://philosopherswheel.com/fortunes.htm
If Trump wins, however, my predictive abilities are in doubt, and all bets are off.