Eric the Green Wrote:Yes, your logic adds up. So this is about can we survive even Clinton; even if Trump loses. We probably can't survive Trump, but can we survive Hillary Clinton if she wins narrowly?
We certainly can survive Clinton. But what happens to her party if she becomes the Democratic Hoover?
Quote:Since my forecast is that the next recession won't be as bad, and there won't be any real new US war until 2025 or 2026, can my prediction prevail even if the economics and the logic say otherwise?
It certainly can. 2008 showed that financial panics had come back after being banished in the 1930’s. Back in the old days panic spacing had run from 14 years (1893-1907) to 24 years (1907-1932) with an average value of 18 years, about the length of two modern business cycles. If this timing is still valid then we should avoid panic in this recession, but get it in the next, which agrees with your timetable. It also agrees with Turchin’s secular cycle concept.
It does not with the S&H generational theory. According to S&H’s theory (which is based on Karl Mannheim’s ideas, generations pick up their traits when coming of age. They express them later in life when they reach the leadership phase of life. Thus, this 4T is generationally defined as the period when the generation shaped by the last 2T is in leadership. This generation was born over 1943-1960, according to S&H and they should be leaving the leadership role in the early 2020’s.
The GIs left leadership in 1976, 8 years before the end of the 2T. If we extrapolate Howe’s data we get Boomers exiting leadership in 2024, suggesting a 4T end in 2032. If we don’t get a panic until ca. 2027 and replace the bum in office in 2028 (regneracy), can we then go to climax and 4T resolution in just 4 years? This seems to be a lot of really heavy lifting. Much more likely would be nothing is done and we just continue to drift in which case it will look like we have just stayed in a 3T for 48 years, and the theory will be invalidated.
Thus, I believe if another panic is truly in the cards (as many here, including me, think) then it pretty much has to happen now or the S&H theory is invalid. The whole point of theory is to explain. That requires that its use can rule out some future paths, otherwise it is no theory. It’s fish or cut bait time. In Generations they said we should know in 30 years or so. Well, the time is coming for their theory to deliver.
Quote:First of all, I think the current recovery is turning out to be more robust than the last one.
No, it’s not more robust. It’s longer. The last business cycle ended in 7 years. If you compare where we we are the end of 2014 with 2007 you will see we lagged.
Quote:There was no stimulus after previous recessions, going back decades.
No, there was a Bush stimulus. It was small but then the recession was small.
Quote:This was the first time that the Democrats were able to get a stimulus past the trickle-down ideology intact for decades.
Yes, but they won’t be able to the next time.