02-22-2019, 03:06 PM
(02-22-2019, 11:37 AM)Marypoza Wrote:(02-21-2019, 04:39 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Book, copyright 2017. The Shadows Of The American Century. The Rise and Decline of US Global Power by Alfred W. McCoy.
The author discusses different scenarios about the future of international relations.
Among the milder scenarios:
1. The global system still exists, in altered form.
"...a new global oligopoly might emerge between 2020 and 2030, with rising powers China, Russia, India, and Brazil all collaborating with receding powers like Britain, Germany, Japan and the United States to enforce an ad hoc global dominion, akin to the loose alliance of European empires that ruled half of humanity circa 1900.
2.
"If the international order were, however, to weaken markedly, then instead of near anarchy, we might see the rise of regional hegemons in a return to something reminiscent of the international system that operated in the seventeenth century before modern empires took shape".
In the book G Zero the author suggested that the world is headed towards scenario 2.
With scenario 2. I can see a semblance of the current global order lingering. But it would have been watered down into a minimalistic framework.
-- l have 2 agree with scenario 2 as well. The BRIC alliance is already falling apart
We are irrevocably in a world global system. However, there are always fluctuations, and as I predicted decades before, right now the nations and regions are making a comeback. The dominant trend will pick up again within a few decades, if not sooner, and globalism remains the overall trend and cannot be stopped, but only managed properly, OR NOT.