(02-17-2017, 01:48 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:(09-20-2016, 08:32 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Given:
1) Late Antiquity was not in any way unique at the time - there had been previous, repeated falls of earlier Civilizations
2) Clear failure of the "glue" that has held the current post Middle Ages wave of Civilization together
3) Rising mass migrations from less Civilized parts of the world
4) Reactionary forces here in the West using #2 and #3 to bolster their own ultimately self destructive plans
5) The onset of zero / negative economic growth meaning less and less to invest in infrastructure, education and human development
6) Even if we reverse anthropogenic environmental mods and impacts, the Law of Averages dictates that the unbelievably favorable environmental conditions enjoyed since the Little Ice Age cannot and will not last
7) Ongoing evolution of harmful microorganisms, parasites, toxic molds / fungi, etc;
A mega Unraveling is an inevitability. It is not a matter of if, but when.
The only real question would be, would the next mega Unraveling phase with a future Saecular 3T, would it phase with the conclusion of the current or future Saeculum, or is this the sort of thing that is more random in nature, and does not phase at all with the Saecular "carrier frequency?"
DISCUSS!
We may never get the renaissance or regeneracy that I and others have predicted.
But no, once again I have to point out, the mega cycle usually discussed here is totally bogus. If today is a mega-unravelling, then there is no correlation between the historical trends and facts of the various "mega cycles" with the supposed-other turnings. And the American Revolution was not the start of America.
Only the 500-year cycle of civilization holds sway over cycles hundreds of years longer than a saeculum.
America started with Columbus and the European Renaissance. That was taught to me in the 7th grade, and it's still true. The American Revolution was just a transfer of state authority, and little more. The essential state system just continued as it was, with the colonists demanding the same rights that the people of the Motherland had.
Nevertheless it lit a spark under the old country, and a triple Revolution ensued: industrial, political and romantic.
However, this was only the seeds of things to come, and it was the great Unravelling of the old Renaissance civilization. Industrialism and its false notion of "progress" was the chief dissolving, unravelling agent. A new world civilization has replaced the Renaissance European one since the 1890s and the World Wars. America has become like Rome, just as Rome had replaced the Greek civilization of which Rome was a consolidation.
It's important to recognize that the "post middle ages" civilization that Mr. X 84 mentions, is 125 years past now; dead and long gone.
Ours is the new world of multi-national corporations, of mass media, mass transportation and electronic utilities and communication, of developing high-tech, of modern physics and shifting paradigms in thought from Einstein and Nietzsche onwards, of modern art and music and pop music dominance-- starting with the "New Art" (Art Nouveau), of mass immigration, of worldwide culture and information, of economic and increasingly-political world integration, of environmentalism and the consciousness of death looming over the human ability to manipulate and dominate Nature and kill ourselves with mass weapons. This is our age, and it's only 125 years old now.
Where we are today is in the early phase of the Roman Empire. So although you may think that America is declining, the fact is that this Empire will be around in some form for at least another 300 to 400 years.
You might as well sit back and relax and get used to it!
Our saeculum cannot be a mega-unravelling. It can only be a mega-high, because we are at the end of a saeculum in which American hegemony and wealth was unquestioned and attained a power the world had not seen before.
That hegemony may decline as the world becomes more integrated, as the world civilization born in the Great War and the League of Nations matures. But it won't go away entirely. We are not at that point on the cycle at all. So it will take quite some time for a mega-unravelling to develop in the cycle of civilization 500-years long. It will be 500 years after the late 18th and 19th centuries, the last such mega-unravelling of the previous Renaissance Civilization.
Needless to say, the long-term trend is the reverse of Trump, Brexit, LePen, Putin and their kind. World integration and federation (and with localized control too) will increase. Social Darwinism, fascism and racism will decline again. The great change can't be put back into the bottle of isolationism. Trumpism is a hiccup in the 4T of our saeculum; it is a catalyst that will likely only spur change in all the opposite directions to the ones he advocates.
-- you got a chart for all that?
my 2 yr old Niece/yr old Nephew 2020