Something Like Late Antiquity Will Happen Again

[pbrower2a]

(09-20-2016, 08:32 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Given:
1) Late Antiquity was not in any way unique at the time - there had been previous, repeated falls of earlier Civilizations
2) Clear failure of the "glue" that has held the current post Middle Ages wave of Civilization together
3) Rising mass migrations from less Civilized parts of the world
4) Reactionary forces here in the West using #2 and #3 to bolster their own ultimately self destructive plans
5) The onset of zero / negative economic growth meaning less and less to invest in infrastructure, education and human development
6) Even if we reverse anthropogenic environmental mods and impacts, the Law of Averages dictates that the unbelievably favorable environmental conditions enjoyed since the Little Ice Age cannot and will not last
7) Ongoing evolution of harmful microorganisms, parasites, toxic molds / fungi, etc;

A mega Unraveling is an inevitability. It is not a matter of if, but when.

The only real question would be, would the next mega Unraveling phase with a future Saecular 3T, would it phase with the conclusion of the current or future Saeculum, or is this the sort of thing that is more random in nature, and does not phase at all with the Saecular "carrier frequency?"

DISCUSS!

1. Civilization is not human nature. The hunter-gatherer is the expression of human nature. Civilization that implies that the workers have a stake in the system is sustainable. Pure exploitation is not sustainable. Civilization takes centuries to develop and can take only a few years to wipe out. So people fail to maintain the irrigation and drainage canals... tsk, tsk. tsk. The population will crash with the loss of the food supply.

2. Elites need to recognize that the common man needs a stake in the system just to prevent a socialist insurrection at the first opportunity. But drifting off to go fly fishing can be very attractive. It satisfies the drives of the hunter-gatherer that have never really left us.

3. Less civilized? That is presumptuous.
 
4. #2, at the least.

5. The end of technological advancement as a cause of economic growth may be upon us. We are using fewer resources to achieve as much, at least per capita. We have no technofixes as easy, uncontroversial solutions to our economic distress.

6. Changes in climatic patterns may arise before the inundations from shrinking ice sheets. An open Arctic  during the peak sun seasons will have an effect upon rainfall pattens in at the least the middle latitudes. Polar regions at the solstice get even more intense solar radiation than do the tropics.

By 2100 we could have a summer low over the Arctic that sucks up moisture from the middle latitudes, creating seasonal droughts where those do not now occur. Just imagine the American High Plains as desert.

7. Do you hate Midwestern blizzards? Then I have a solution for you. It's called "Florida".

Those midwestern blizzards protect soil moisture and prevent the growth of tropical microorganisms  that cause plant blights and 'tropical' diseases. We had the 'Year with no winter' in 2012, the year in which the  Cfa/Dfa climate boundary reached Michigan instead of along the Ohio River. We also had poor crop yields for a lack of soil moisture.