(05-26-2018, 05:33 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:(05-25-2018, 11:57 PM)TheNomad Wrote:(05-25-2018, 11:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(05-25-2018, 03:18 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophetPer your next to last line, the name Homeland Generation was given to those born mostly from the time of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks for the reason that homeland security became a new cabinet department. That date is closer to 2002 than to 2000, so that would be about right.
I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote:
So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.
So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.
I don't know if I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.
I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot.
I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.
If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.
I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.
Also, why do you feel that a revolution in the US is unlikely to succeed? Because we might get a Napoleon clone like France got after their revolution? We have the closest thing to a Napoleon-type in power right now. Might there be another equivalent of Grant vs. Lee?
The civil war rebellion failed; Lee lost. I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions; our country is too conservative and fearful; too convinced it is the greatest nation in the world as it is. It looks down on those who act up and disobey the law. And we are too divided; it will be a long time before we are unified behind one vision and program of progress; unified enough to overthrow the government and agree on what replaces it. And the law has superior resources. Less violent movements can bring progress, but even that is rare today; I hope it can happen again, and think it will in the next 10 years, and in the next 2T too. Perhaps we will shift bigly and the conservatives will just all melt away. It's always possible. But then, I'm an optimistic snowflake as The Nomad says.... so, which side will melt away?? is the question...
You said: I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions
I've been saying this. We MAY be actively blind to the idea no one is going to support a major war effort right now and no one is going to sacrifice the blessed children on the altar of foreign war right now. Which means 911 and the following wars WERE the conflict of the Crisis. People were utterly hypnotized by the american flag. IT WAS OK GOOD AND RIGHT to rant about destroying muslims in revenge.
What happened after 911 really does fit the paradigm described by the authors. One arm of the Crisis is war, the other economic. These things have already happened. This, the High should be coming much sooner.
You may be optimistic, but are you truly that if you don't think the 911 wars and the ensuing transformation of our culture WAS NOT ENOUGH to fit the bill. No, there has to be MORE. Is that optimistic?
Yes, because it's the MORE where real positive change could be made. 9-11 and its aftermath were a negative change; part of the unravelling, taking us back to business as usual militarism, and human rights violations to boot. That was not a transformation at all, but a serious regression.
Usually, the economic crisis happens first. Also, don't forget my point. Wars happen in 3Ts too. World War One. The War with Mexico. The French and Indian War. And, the 9-11 wars. None of these were the "big ones." The 4T ones.
Right now, I don't think Americans will support a war. But the war cycle is only 12 years long. Although it's true the war that started at the preceding cycle, 9-11/Afghanistan, lasted through the whole cycle and beyond. Then in 2013-14 the next cycle took us back to Iraq to fight the IS and almost into Syria. So, the Afghan war continues, at a low level, as it has off and on since it started. But no, I think the Trump presidency will not see a new USA war; he will fulfill his America First stance in that respect. Now, I could be wrong, but I don't think so. It's true that even Americans need a rest and a respite before going into another war. But his bullying could set the stage for what happens when the war cycle comes around again in 2025.
Being only every 12 years, a war doesn't always happen every cycle, but often the basis for the next war happens. The big thing though, is that in 2025 we not only have the 12 year war cycle, but the 84-year one. The "big one" is due then too. That cycle is hard to deny. So, it looks like another war is ahead at the end of this 4T.
I am good at predicting wars. But I hope, someday, that I will be poor at it, because my prediction of a more long-term revolution of peace will come true too.
Don't forget, as horrible as World War Two was, and as much as we don't want another one, it did bring some positive transformation. Women and blacks advanced in society, and because of that, they demanded more in the next 2T. Technology progressed, and the United Nations was founded. The USA became the responsible leader of the free world, and the free world itself expanded, since the war ended the old imperial aristocracy in Germany and spelled the end of colonial empires. After world war two, there were no further regressions back from the advance of democracy in Western and Central Europe.
The Civil war, as horrible as it was, and as much as we don't want another one, but may indeed get a smaller one, it did free the slaves, and the industrial revolution ramped up.
The Revolution, which cost its leaders their lives, fortunes and sacred honor, did bring about the first constitutional republic in the world, and the bill of rights. It spread to Europe too, where the French created the second one; which did not last, but paved the way for gradual progress toward free republics after the war that resulted.
9-11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq resulted in no progress or positive change at all, but regression and nothing but regression. If we are at the end of the 4T, then this saeculum only lasted 72 years. It is supposed to last about 82.
All your points are well-made. It is hard to argue them.
However, when you say 911 and the ensuing alteration of our civilization was just "return to business as usual" I'm not sure you are remembering or perhaps were not really exposed(?) to that aftermath sufficiently. We were not inundating with top-down hypnosis to immediately get on board with "America Under Attack" when the images of the planes exploding into the towers were playing on loops for entire days afterward. We were made to believe the next event could be a school, a mall, or even random urban centers that might destroy thousand upon thousands. There absolutely was a massive change in our civilization on a scale not see in at least during my lifetime. Bush I invaded Iraq but the public support was not there. The propaganda was not sufficiently in enough swing to convince anyone on a mass scale.
4T is not meant for transformation of outer life like institutions and chronic problems over the unraveling and crisis periods. 1st Turnings are that time.