Looking Toward The Next High

[Eric the Green]

(05-26-2018, 01:52 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-26-2018, 11:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: "I do agree, a First Turning must coincide with transformation of what caused the Crisis." This is not in accord with the theory, or with past 1Ts. First Turnings are times of stasis, conformity, consolidation, consensus, recovery, status quo, capital and infrastructure development, spirit death. First Turnings are not times of transformation. Those are in social moment turnings, the 4th and 2nd. In a 4th turning, a crisis leads to a transformation. We've had the crisis, but not the transformation yet. It won't happen unless it happens in the next 10 years, which will be the second half of a fourth turning. If we don't, then the cycle has ended, and the USA is in steep decline.

Agreed, all.  The Millennial mindset is stasis and conformity - almost to the extreme.  You mention also tho, 1st T are also a time of institutional transformation.  I can see that beginning very soon.  How long (consider it) how long would it have to take for the millennial to be primed for some war, fight it, swaths of the generation die and THEN return to enter public life with the mission of transforming institutions?  That would be longer than a decade for it to be feasible. 

You say the "second half of the 4T" which mean millennials will be in an age bracket to be mid 30s to mid 50s and that doesn't really fit with comparison to WWII scenario.  They were out and spawning in the suburbs by the 1950s.  And even by then, the "outer" transformation that addresses weak public institutions, etc was already really in full swing.

The ages of the archetypes do not really fit, and length of turnings do not really fit.  The only way to make them fit is to expand the cycle to possibly unreasonable lengths.

And you finish with "if we don't, America is in decline".  So, it is either this super expanded time period OR America will die.

We don't have our time scenarios quite right here. The 4T is the time of institutional transformation, is what I say. I wouldn't say the millennial mindset is stasis and conformity; that's the first turning mindset. It takes at least three generations living at any one time to create a mood or mindset. The first turning is a spell of relief, recovery, conformity, consensus, stasis, materialism and ongoing building after a major transformation that usually involved both an economic and military crisis.

The second half of the 4T means from now until 2028-29. So right now, as the second half of the 4T begins, millennials are in youth, 36 years old down to 16. By the time it ends they will be 10 years older, 46 down to 26; so civic millennials will be entering middle age in the 1T, which is why it's a 1T, along with Gen Z artists entering youth, Alpha prophets entering childhood, Xer nomads entering elderhood, and Boomer prophets slowly going out to pasture.

This is all exactly according to the schedule, as described by Mr. Howe.