Was 911 & the Cultural Aftermath/Change in National Mood Part of This Crisis Period?

[pbrower2a]

(09-23-2018, 03:31 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(09-23-2018, 08:55 AM)Marypoza Wrote: -- don't bet on it. Eric, those f-ing Dems are already moving 4ward to get Kavanaugh confirmed 

If this plays through, and the Dems let it happen, just to preserve their seats, then this gets ugly really fast.  Of course, the alternatives suck too.  Looking down the list, and assume one or more of the at-risk Dems or Pro-Choice Republicans grows a pair (or even one) and votes against then these are the possiblities:

1. Kavanaugh is approved but the GOP loses the Senate
   
2. Kavanaugh fails but the GOP retains the Senate
   
3. Kavanaugh is approved and the GOP retains the Senate anyway
   
4. Kavanaugh fails and the GOP loses the Senate.
   

I put them in the order of most to least likely.  1 is a push for the Dems, but may justify packing the Senate if they get that option.  If they don't, then the court is RW for the foreseeable future.  2 is a push in the other direction, but may convince DJT not to fire everyone in sight.  Of the four options, this is the one I have the least sense of where it leads.  3 is bad all the way; DJT fires everyone including Mueller.  Nothing good comes of this.  4 is highly unlikely, but it's dicey.  If the Dems get too high on their own juices, it can be WJC all over again … including the possibility of a second term for the Orange One.

Republicans will sacrifice Kavanaugh in an effort to save their Senate majority. Their highest principle aside from class privilege is power. He is becoming too high a risk for them.

Character matters greatly in judges. More significantly, a jurist who shades legal interpretations in favor of one political boss for his favored leader sets a precedent for others. Trump is the only President who could have supported the nomination of someone like this because this President's moral value is that if he wants it it is good, and if he does not want it it is bad. That is typical for a despot -- and atypical for any prior President. Sure, they have almost always chosen to nominate people compatible with their political values (Reagan or Obama) or to create a balance fitting theirs (Nixon).

The damage may already be done, and the question is of who gets to be the 'dissident' and how that 'dissident' formulates a call for Kavanaugh to be removed from consideration. Control of the Senate is much in question; with a President who is at all popular the Republicans should be gaining seats in the Senate.

One consequence of a Kavanaugh withdrawal is that Trump would appoint some right-wing jurist who has some crazy idea about economic power having special rights -- like the right to avoid having to deal with unions, or the right of employers to control their workers' votes. One state legislature would be enough to create a USSC case should some state's resident dissent and challenge such a law and a USSC majority decide on behalf of employers. Welcome to one of those high-tech nightmare worlds, the sort of monstrosity that one saw on 1930's serials, in which high technology and a feudal social order meld to create a totalitarian state. Think about it -- your employer decides how you are to be represented.

The third is an unmitigated disaster for America, evidence that the President can have people around to shade the law as he sees fit. Trump wants a servile, and not an independent judiciary... as do all despots and tyrants.

The fourth is a sleazy trade, and in its own way a disaster. Republicans have a majority until the conservative jurist in probably worst health dies. But this sets up the opportunity for a left-wing demagogue to set up his own Justice who sacrifices judicial independence for
rushing his economic agenda. Bolivarianismo norteamericano?

Donald Trump is of course the real nightmare.

At this point I see Kavanaugh not deciding any part of the 2018 or 2020 Congressional or Senatorial elections.