12-07-2016, 12:14 PM
(12-07-2016, 03:00 AM)Tuss Wrote:(12-07-2016, 01:48 AM)Emman85 Wrote: Those dates are off too, I mean the 1T starting in the middle of World War 2, but yeah we have a ways to go before we get to anything resembling a 1T. I'm thinking around 2028 or 2029 at least, the 4T is just now starting to ramp up, the post 911/ pre-recession '00s were prime 3T.
The 1943 date was simply a mistake. I meant to write 1946 as per orthodox S&H. Instead, the first cohort birth year of the Boom sneaked in. The departure from S&H is instead in the timing of the 3T, which I and several others for a long time have claimed are incorrect as per TFT and on. Claiming that the 3T (obviously) began around 1980, and not in mid decade, is called being an "early 80's challenger" on this forum. I also subscribe to the view that our present Turning began in 2001 rather than 2008 (or 2005 etc).
I was wondering what you meant by early '80s challenger, my own view is that the awakening lasted until around 1983 or 1984, there was still too much '70s holdovers in 1980 and 1981(stagflation malaise, nuclear protests, ect), Reagan's first term was very contested. You should make a thread called early '80s challenger, that would be interesting to discuss in depth.