Trump as 4T Leader

[sbarrera]

(08-24-2019, 02:51 PM)Mikebert Wrote: T-his is true. But Trump's Trade War is in its nascent phase, and the economic issues to be resolved by this policy (and other things not yet addressed) will require time. The idea that the 2020 election could bring a flurry of change creating the structural change characteristic of a 4T in the next half dozen years allowing for an end to the 4T in the mid-2020's seems to me to be fantastical. There is no way progressive political forces will have the same legislative dominance in 2021 as they did in 2009. It seems a fools errand to expect structural change following the 2020 election.

Yet the accelerating disintegration of the ability of the American political system to deal with issues has become a pressing issue, which may need to be the central issue redressed by the 2020 election. Even if this happens, it does nothing to address the core issued needing redress from even before the turning began. It is increasingly hard to see how these issues could be even addressed much less resolved. before 2030. The reason for this is the lack of action in 2009, when Democrats had more power than they will likely seed for a couple of decades or more. 

Then when you combing this with an obvious turning change around 2000, it becomes  impossible to conceive of a single secular crisis turning consistent with modern generational length that can account for the beginnings of a police state in 2001 with the massive economic justice struggles that will have to take place in the 2020's. You cannot plausibly have an 17 yr turning (1929-46), an 18 year turning (1946-64), a 20 yr turning (1964-84) a 21 yr turning (1984-2005) with a 25+ year turning from 2005 to after 2030. It's too ad hoc.

If the Democratic party can't do it for wont of power, then it will be the Republican's 4T. Though I still think the change could happen remarkably quickly in just on election cycle. 2020-2024 could be insanely fast paced in terms of political change. It will be easier to tell with hindsight.

The obvious turning change in 2000 I do not see. I remember how we struggled on the old forum to decide if the turning had shifted after 9/11. I believe it did not. Just like WWI was not a turning change.