What are your specialities?

[Ldr]

Hintergrund, pbrower2a and David Horn,

The generational hormone theory largely bypasses/negates all of your speculations about generations "understanding" societal events and how this could therefore change the course of history (through generational influence) and the generations themselves. This is the same thing that Strauss & Howe got wrong, and I think you're largely repeating their incorrect starting positions. Howe got it right in one interview where he said that "don't look at how new technology shapes a generation, look at how a generation shapes new technology". This is the correct mindset, as the generations are the ones shaping history, not the other way around. Generations shape also the culture to look like them. They listen to music that matches their generational mood.

So, what is crucial and decisive in how individuals and groups react to societal events is their hormone levels.

For example, it has been widely speculated why so many couples stayed together during the 1930's Great Depression, and one popular idea is that couples couldn't afford to move apart. But the answer is simple: oxytocin levels were high at that time, and oxytocin is needed to bind couples, families and other groups together, and there are several studies supporting this statement. The 1970's oil/economic crisis seemed to cause a lot of divorces, but as the oxytocin levels were at a low point at that time in history, the economic difficulties were efficient in breaking up marriages. And during 2008's Great Recession the oxytocin levels were high again, thus the divorce rate did not to spike during economic distress. Check the graph below for the oxytocin levels during these mentioned recessions/depressions.

All of this highlights how Strauss & Howe were very correct when they used the word 'catalyst' for momentous societal events. But for a catalyst to have an effect on divorces for example, it needs the correct hormone levels present. Otherwise not much will happen, like in 1929 and 2008. Those who look on at societal explanations for couples separating or staying together during an recession/depression will never be able to understand why they are unable to replicate their findings to other similar societal situations, and that is because they are missing the most crucial part of human behavior: hormones.

This is exactly the same house of cards in a bowl of soup I was talking about before. Attempts will fail when trying to explain the rise of populist nationalism by mixing the societal situation with some vague psychological assumptions and adding in the negative effect of social media, to make it all seem like it's the perfect storm. It's a storm alright, but not because of a string of random social interactions and that brought us to this highly polarized moment. (It's not even the generational social dynamics that Strauss & Howe presented, although they documented the visible end results amazingly.)

The reason for the rise of populist nationalism is the 4th turning tide of simultaneous high levels of oxytocin and vasopressin. This is the time when groups tighten and the ones behaving differently (including ideological preferences) are singled out. This phenomenon can also be seen even in the witch hunt hysteria, which every time peaked at the beginning of 4th turnings. It's hard to see how this could be only a coincidence, as there is clear evidence from many centuries.