When did the current 4T begin?

[David Horn]

(09-10-2019, 11:30 AM)tg63 Wrote:

(09-10-2019, 03:53 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote: For those who voted "other", which dates do you have in mind?

this is not a well thought out position, and I know there are a lot of strong opinions in here, so take this with a grain of salt ... after all this is a message board, not a thesis proposal ...

I didn't vote Other, but I'm seriously considering that the 4th turning doesn't fit the same cycle other turnings do. The depression last time provided a nice demarcation but aside from that, one could consider the crisis of past turnings - the actual conflict periods - to have been 1939-45, 1861-65, 1775-83 ... I haven't done the math but an argument could be made that a typical cycle involves the 3T extending significantly beyond the 20 or so years that S&H defined and shortening the actual length of the crisis part of the 4T.

So in that light ... perhaps, the 4T started with the 2016 election???

Assuming you believe that something dramatic like a war is necessary: a 4T should have a semi-dormant phase, when the stresses build and lesser solutions are tried in vain.  Eventually, the dam breaks and the full crisis response ensues.  That was true prior to the AR, the ACW and the GD/WW-II. I wouldn't count those periods as 3T.  They have no 3T characteristics.