When did the current 4T begin?

[David Horn]

(11-19-2019, 05:33 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I used to think 2008, but now I am not sure. The reason is the secular cycle concept I have been working with since 2014. Secular cycles are cycles that tend to be longer than saecula. The border between them tend to align with 4Ts.

These border eras tend to be times of political turmoil often involving state collapse--civil war, revolution, invasion. There are math models that described these cycles and empirical data that fits these models, so they have more empirical and theoretical support than the saeculum. In agrarian nations the cycle is driven by demographics and can be characterized in terms of cycles in population and economic inequality. In industrial nations population cycles are no longer a factor but inequality can still be used to track them. Piketty and his co-workers have tracked inequality in a number of nations, which provides examples of secular cycles in modern nations.

At present inequality is about as high as it was in 1916/1929 (twin peak), which was the last time we had one of those border crisis eras.  Secular cycle theory calls for high levels of social unrest and intra elite political conflict which can manifest as extreme polarization and take no prisoners politics. All three of these things are happening today. Last time these things we more associated with the first peak around 1916 than the one in 1929, whereas the long term decline in inequality that is part of a new cycle happened after 1929. Peter Turchin, the developer of this theory holds that secular cycle border last time was in the 1910's, whereas I hold it was the 1930's.

I am working on a hypothesis that inequality in an industrial capitalist country leads to financial instability, meaning that we should see a repeat of the financial crisis in the next recession. Part of secular cycle theory is a measure of political instability called PSI. PSI was low in 1893, 1907 and 2008, but very high in 1929 and today. Because PSI was low for the first three financial crises, they did not lead to the sort of structural changes that produce long term declines in inequality. The high PSI in 1929 meant these reforms did happen.

So we now have an opportunity for a test. If the hypothesis is valid we should see these structural changes happen, and this new panic could serve as a regeneration, with the first one as a trigger. The 4T would have begun in 2008. If not, then we will have to wait another decade for a chance at fundamental economic change (i.e. a regeneration), and the case of a 4T start in 2008 looks untenable.

If this is a 4T in the true sense of the term, then this election must be a dramatic one.  So far, I don't see that happening.  I doubt Trump will get another 4 years, but the Dems aren't covering themselves in rose petals either.  Most of the early energy in that party seems to be focused on "a return to normal", whatever that is in today's terms. If the Dems win by being the milquetoast party, then your 10-year delay of the next crisis era seems spot on. On the other hand, if they choose an activist candidate, that candidate wins, and has the coattail to carry the Congress, then the 2008 start of the 4T may be real.  Needless to say, that's the option I prefer.  Unfortunately, I'm typically more the outlier than guide-on.