(04-05-2020, 01:24 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(04-05-2020, 01:16 PM)Isoko Wrote: I would argue and say that this is not a climax but more the beginning of the of the end of the 4T. If I was to describe it, this is more of a Franz Ferdinand moment. The crisis that will ultimately reshape the world.
What's the equivalent of the World War, though? Once the pandemic is over, it seems to me things return to where they were just before the pandemic, rather than changing.
I would say it depends on which part of the world you live in. In America, I would say that on the domestic front, there will probably be a very hard recession but due to the dollar being the world reserve currency, the U.S will just print itself out of the quagmire for now. Eventually there will be a debt default but that is I think a few decades down the line. That itself will be very painful.
However in order to reduce expenditures and with a rather bad public image, I believe that the U.S "empire" will start to really come apart during this decade. You can already see the decline in middle Eastern affairs and even in Europe, Russia is being favourably looked upon as a better partner then America...
Now as for Europe on the other hand, I think that this is likely going to lead to a depression. Too much debt, weak centralised authority from the EU and too many basket case economies. I think after corona virus, Europe is going to explode into heavy political action. I expect that the economic woes along with continued problems of immigration will lead to the rise of populist governments and the eventual death of the EU, which in itself is another economic storm waiting to happen.
Europe will of course eventually recover but I presume it'll take decades. So we are no where near out of the 4T yet, especially for Europe. It is just beginning.
The problem is, a lot of people on here think to themselves 2008 was a 4T event but let's be honest, life just went on. There was no major disruptions to life. Just events that did not really change the world. It felt more like a 3T to be honest. Just one large can kicking down the road. Crimea here. Brexit there. Trump over in that corner. It never actually really changed anything in a major way.
People on here think that these events are just a crisis but globalisation will go on and that will be it. But in my eyes, the 4T can only when you have the collapse of an order and the beginning of a new one. Until we get to that event, there can be no revival.