03-30-2020, 10:13 PM
(03-29-2020, 11:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Trump is extending social distancing guidelines to April 30, saying peak deaths could occur in two weeks and puts the US coronavirus death levels at 100,000 or more. That is not quite Happy Talk, far better than releasing everything by Easter (April 12). He is beginning to shift his perspective, but I am not convinced he is going anywhere near fast enough.
New cases and deaths will peak in most states this week, 13-17 days after statewide school closures and other measures. You heard it here first. Whether they then level out or decline will be an interesting question; that might take another week to see clearly.
If they decline, we should remove the business closures. At most, we should require face masks for businesses to reopen. Face masks would make it safe to reopen businesses even if the cases merely level off.
School closures and voluntary social distancing should remain in place.
I agree with you that we should try to prevent cases from exceeding the capacity of the health care system. On the other hand, there's little reason to try to reduce it substantially below that capacity. I don't think we're in danger of exceeding that capacity outside of the New York metro area.