Global warming

[Bob Butler 54]

(02-14-2017, 02:18 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(02-12-2017, 07:07 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: Has this been disproven?

The Green Catastrophist "model" goes like this:

500+ PPM of CO2, and, the permafrost all melting releasing all it's CO2 and CH4, and, positive feedback from more H2O in the atmosphere, overcomes the innate power of the current Ice Age. I say current because we are merely in an interglacial.

Of course, that is a model. Here's the real world. We are not above 500PPM. It remains to be seen if that gets exceeded. Currently we are seemingly oscillating around 400 some odd. The permafrost has not all melted and in fact, is not melting anywhere near what some expected. Lots of so called permafrost melt is actually due to exposing the permafrost (mining, road cuts, construction, etc, etc). CH4 is not climbing all that quick. And there is real scientific debate about how H2O really works in this system. Some of the H20 may actually cool the Earth.

Let's look at the CO2 levels...

Yes, there is an oscillation.  The period of the oscillation is 365.25 days.  One year.  As the seasons turn, there is a very regular periodic pattern that has nothing to do with the long term trend.

The long term trend is as solid as anything you'll find in nature.  If things continue business as usual, we are heading towards 500.  You have to have a high quality blindfold to avoid seeing that.

Yes, the Milankovitch cycles are a significant cooling forcing factor.  Human produced greenhouse gasses are a larger warming forcing factor.  See reality.  There are lots of forcing factors...  volcanoes, solar cycles, El Nino, continental drift, whatever.  Every once in a while I'll print the temperature charts and show the magnitude and duration produced by each sort of factor.  The big one is the polar ice melting, exposing more dark water.  Cross that point and the system moves out of the sensitive part of the curve where Milankovitch cycles have an effect.  The ice age / interglacial cycle is not a permanent thing.  It depends on the continents surrounding or covering the poles, thus allowing the ice to form there.  It depends on plants taking CO2 out of the atmosphere, and burying it as oil and coal.  Put enough of that oil and coal back into the atmosphere, and you know how all the images of the dinosaurs feature them walking around tropical swamps?

And, yes, not all of the predictions have been squarely accurate.  The permafrost hasn't been melting as fast as the predictions, but the polar ice is far exceeding predictions.  Sure, you can say nothing is happening while watching investments being made in northwest passage shipping.

For the nonprofessionals, how many people view climate science depends primarily on their political affiliation.  I'd as soon listen to the professionals.  Hanging out on this site has me convinced a partisan can convince himself of whatever he wants to believe.