Why we are nowhere near the end of the fourth turning

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-09-2020, 08:32 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: The thing is, you've given up on the actual Strauss-Howe theory and replaced it with your own ideas.  The Crisis, according to the theory, is a time when society is threatened to its core, shaken to its foundations, and out of the ashes of this a new society is born.  According to the theory, the climax of a crisis is unforseeable until you get close to it, total war is likely, and things that were unimaginable a few years before become possible.

I do include other perspectives in my approach, in particular ages and civilizations.  S&H produced a decent product, but they are not the only ones to do so.  I am accustomed on T4T sites to people who have learned S&H reasonably well, but are not familiar with other systems or their implications.  Some get militant about it.

I spent much time last year wondering about whether a crisis configuration - prophet, nomad, civic - going by without a trigger.  There had been no trigger, no regeneracy, no crisis heart.  None claimed one.  Clearly a crisis without a trigger or regeneracy would not be classic S&H.  However, along came COVUS and much of the theory could be run along the S&H pattern.  I abandoned my conjecture, though I note that the presence of a sufficient trigger in the Information Age is not guaranteed.

I still see nukes and insurgency making a crisis war rare in the Information Age with the trigger, regeneracy and crisis war by major powers accordingly much more rare.  So far, none such have occurred.  When such a war occurs, if it occurs, I will adjust.  In the meanwhile I won’t hold my breath.  The major mistake of modern hawks is assuming the current age will be an echo of the last.  This has not been the case in past ages.  I do not expect it now.

(06-09-2020, 08:32 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: But you don't believe any of this.  You've replaced the theory with your own personal preference, which is a very mild crisis that doesn't threaten society in any way.  These Black Lives Matter protests do not threaten anything, they are minor protests of a sort seen repeatedly throughout the last 55 years.  The coronavirus pandemic is similar to the Hong Kong flu of the 60s and the Asian Flu of the 50s, each of which killed 1-4 million people.  A disease which kills mostly old people, in addition to 0.1% of people under the age of 65, doesn't threaten the existence of society.

The new and old values are well noted, debated and compromised over the length of the unraveling.  The most severe problems that actually confront the culture are addressed.  The culture does not confront problems that have not existed, which have generated no triggers.  How could they?

Once the primary problems of a crisis are solved, once the new values are proven by the trial and error crisis heart, you hold some never again conferences then slide into the high mentality.  I do not see people waiting around for another trigger.  Always in the past they have moved on to the high.  With the boomers fading from the leadership role, I anticipate the pattern holding.

This is pretty pure S&H.

(06-09-2020, 08:32 PM)Mickey123 Wrote: Obviously these things aren't possible today.  They only become possible at the end, when the culture wars reach their conclusion.

You want to throw out the Crisis part of the Strauss-Howe theory and still have it work, but it can't work without a crisis.  You can do without a war, but this requires society to be shaken to its foundation in some other fashion.

These things are impossible period.  I can acknowledge there are Internet forums where all sorts of strange ideas are debated.  The internet is great for that.  I don’t see that as meaning a lot.  I anticipate the new values will settle the culture wars.  I anticipate the crisis will be centered on the greatest problems of today, not the greatest problems of years gone by.  I realize this isn’t crisis enough for you.  I suspect it is crisis enough for most to want to move on to the high rather than wait for a trigger that will never come and with the new values already in place.