06-19-2020, 11:02 PM
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats inthe U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previousmidterm elections.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats inthe U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previousmidterm elections.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.