Wheels within wheels.

[David Horn]

(12-13-2018, 03:24 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I think my post was misunderstood. What I said was I am increasingly of the opinion that the S&H generational theory is wrong. This is NOT to say that we are doomed to have a "failed crisis".  S&H is not the only cycle theory that deals with crisis issues...

My interest has never been academic.  It's more entertainment than anything serious.  That said, I've read-through some of the information on other cycle theories, Turchin in particular, and find them a bit pedantic.  That's not to say that they are wrong, just dense and turgid … and overly complex to address the material they describe.  Complex cycle theories are important in the academy, and indirectly elsewhere, but they have no application in the world we live in.  History is evolving at tremendous speed and accelerating.  We need the Cliff Notes version for hoi polloi, and that could have been T4T.  It's looking more and more like it's not.

Mike then Wrote:...  One direct prediction that can be made based on this model output is that Democrats will not cooperate with Trump like they did with Bush in the event of another financial crisis. That financial markets are in a bubble is revealed by the fact that asset value relative to GDP is higher than ever before, even higher than in 2000 and 2006. We have had 8 such bubbles, four of which ended with financial crises., suggested a 50% probability that this bubble will end as a financial crisis. The most recent two bubbles (2000 and 2006), show the same 50% probability, so this rule apparently still works. 

Most likely, either THIS asset bubble (or the one that associated with the next business cycle, which would peak in the late 2020's) will end with a crisis. PSI is high now, and will be even higher a decade from now. That means this cycle's 1929 event is either in the near future or a decade away, strongly implying a 4T-like crisis in the 2020's or 2030's, that will NOT be do to a generational mechanism along the lines of what S&H proposed.

This is real meat!  I agree on the time frame and focus, yet again, on finance.  The question lingering in the background: is this the first death knell of capitalism?  Is THAT model still viable?  Will AI finally eliminate the need for labor (it's already on the downward spiral), and trigger a real response?  I can't see a purely capitalistic response that doesn't make inequality much worse, and the opposing forces are about as organized as a kindergarten picnic.  

For argument's sake, let's agree that the terminal transition phase is still a long way off.  The history of elites shows no reason to suspect that they will relinquish their favored position willingly, so this next crisis will only indicate the path that will be followed later.  Add-in AGW and the emerging East, and be happy we aren't responsible for fixing that.  Leap forward a century, and the world will be radically different.  Let's hope, in a good way.