Wheels within wheels.

[Mikebert]

Having said this, these various long cycle schemes do have something to day. There ARE patterns to history that rise a 70-90% level of significance. But when  made a concerted effort to establish an empirical basis for these ideas over the 1999-2006 period I was ultimately unsuccessful. Falling back in the predictive capacities of those long-cycle theories that still seemed viable I saw the predictions they made begin to collapse. I then did an experiment. I stated in May 2015 that a large scale stock market decline would being within three years at the most. This did not happen. Two years later I wrote a clarifying article to make the prediction more explicit. This article described the conditional probability that a recession would begin given that it has still been going on at time X. The forecast made from the fact that the expansion was still ongoing in June 2017 was that it would last until December 2018. Given that the expansion was still ongoing in December 2018, the analysis I game in 2017 is no longer valid. This is because the current economic expansion is tied for the longest ever and so historical-based analyses based on when past expansions ended are no longer relevant. Our current business cycle is the Jean Calment of business cycles. 

The reality of today has moved beyond the ability of past experience to explain it.